E4 · cycle-003.e4-pol

Poland, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Poland decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Core disaster in year 1, Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Hybrid coercion in year 25, Regional war spillover in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 9.79 (−0.13); From 9.92; 9.78 to 9.80
Rank by index: 48; From 47; 48 to 48
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 38; From 56; 38 to 38

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.92	9.78	9.79	9.80	higher
Rank by index	47	48	48	48	lower
Tier rank	56	38	38	38	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	713.9	712.3	712.8	713.4	higher
Goal-weighted score	713.9	712.3	712.8	713.4	higher
Resilient score	713.9	712.8 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 77 per cent, buy took 19 per cent, partner took 4 per cent of the 1,535 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Poland actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. A hold-out nation: never tuned to. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.92; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 12.39; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 9.79; 9.75 to 9.83
Skill against persistence: −0.16; group error 2.88 against 2.48 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	6.67	9.39	6.89 6.9–6.9	−2.50	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	10.73	12.88	11.72 11.7–11.8	−1.16	right
National Security	7.93	11.01	8.00 8.0–8.0	−3.01	wrong
Human Capital	11.46	13.32	12.01 11.9–12.1	−1.32	right
Information & Influence	10.15	12.68	8.97 8.9–9.0	−3.71	wrong
Governance & Integrity	10.81	13.11	10.86 10.8–10.9	−2.25	wrong
Financial Strength	10.35	13.06	9.64 9.6–9.7	−3.42	wrong
Production & Innovation	10.41	12.93	9.92 9.9–10.0	−3.01	wrong
Trade & Investment	10.73	13.17	10.09 10.0–10.2	−3.07	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S07 × 0.6 The Oder flood of July 1997 inundated Wrocław and other areas, causing heavy damage to infrastructure, industry and agriculture.
2004 · S12 × 1 EU accession on 1 May 2004 opened the single market, unlocked structural funds and redirected investment into Poland.
2008 · S02 × 0.4 The global financial crisis tightened external financing and slowed growth, but Poland was the only EU economy to avoid recession.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 caused a recession, strained the health system and produced significant excess deaths despite early lockdowns.
2021 · S04 × 0.3 Belarus engineered a migrant border crisis on Poland's eastern frontier as hybrid pressure, though it did not cause an infrastructure blackout.
2022 · S03 × 0.6 Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted Black Sea trade, brought millions of refugees into Poland and sharply raised security and energy costs.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–1998 · partner · 2% each Initial NATO and EU pre-accession work concentrated on administrative, regulatory, financial and military interoperability reforms. (Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Trade Policy & Market Access, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls)
1999–2004 · build · 2% each EU accession negotiation and pre-accession funds targeted transport, agriculture, administrative capacity and structural adjustment. (Transport Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Trade Policy & Market Access, Structural Transformation & Complexity)
2005–2008 · build · 5% each Post-accession EU cohesion funds drove motorway, SME, university and social infrastructure expansion during the fast-growth pre-crisis years. (Transport Infrastructure, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Financial System Depth & Access, Advanced Education, Social Infrastructure)
2009–2014 · build · 2% each Poland used EU funds and counter-cyclical policy to avoid recession while completing Euro 2012 infrastructure and starting energy diversification. (Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Trade Facilitation & Logistics)
2015–2019 · build · 5% each After Crimea and Donbas, Warsaw accelerated defence purchases and energy security projects, while Family 500+ and digital services reshaped social and digital policy. (Land Power, Air Power, Energy Infrastructure, Population Health, Communications & Digital Infrastructure)
2020–2021 · build · 2% each COVID-19 forced health system, crisis management, digital government and fiscal support responses. (National Resilience & Crisis Management, Health System Capability, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2022–2026 · buy · 5% each Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine produced rapid armed forces expansion, air-defence and energy/cyber resilience investment. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Air Power, Energy Infrastructure, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, National Resilience & Crisis Management)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties concern the 1996 scores for fast-moving critical technologies, where Polish capabilities were small and less documented, and the mapping of real events to stylised library events, especially the 2015 rule-of-law crisis and the 2021 Belarus border crisis. Defence and energy scores rely on broad institutional evidence rather than detailed inventories.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Poland played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.92 to a median of 9.79 (−0.13), with 90 per cent of simulations between 9.78 and 9.80 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 47 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 56. Its base income is 305 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,535 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Transport Infrastructure (build, 134 credits, 8.7 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 114 credits, 7.4 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 114 credits, 7.4 per cent); National Resilience & Crisis Management (build, 84 credits, 5.5 per cent); Land Power (build, 77 credits, 5.0 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 77 per cent, buy 19 per cent, partner 4 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.062, and the most repeated action appeared in 53 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Governance & Integrity; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −32.3 points each); S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −28.0 points each); S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −11.7 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.05; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.94; Economic Leverage & Dependence −2.21; Labour & Employment −2.21 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.58 points); Advanced Education to Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (+0.53 points); Energy Infrastructure to Advanced Manufacturing (+0.42 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 48 (5th to 95th percentile 48 to 48), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 38; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 713 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.543 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.543 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.132: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.023 and −0.008, for example 2007 build Transport Infrastructure (16 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.533 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-pol/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 2) ends −0.01 from it, with 5 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history (a hold-out nation): from a reconstructed index of 9.92 the model ends at 9.79, where the 2026 ratings put it at 12.39. Group scores miss by 2.88 points on average, against 2.48 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.16); the change in each domain has the right sign in 22 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: information and influence (−3.71); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (−1.16) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.132	−86.9
No shocks	+1.543	+108.8
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.008	−0.7	2007 build Transport Infrastructure (16 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.013	−0.8	2007 build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship (16 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.023	−1.5	2007 build Financial System Depth & Access (16 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.016	−1.2	2007 build Advanced Education (16 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.008	−0.7	2007 build Social Infrastructure (16 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.533	+37.1	2020 S10 (-32.3 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.427	+30.7	2022 S03 (-28.0 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.234	+16.6	1997 S07 (-11.7 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−11.0
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−28.0
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	25.0	−10.9
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	1.0	−11.7
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−32.3
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+20.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	6.27	13.92 13.92 to 13.94	+7.65	8.17	84
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	15.53 15.50 to 15.55	+5.72	6.93	185
Air Power	National Security	9.09	13.72 13.70 to 13.73	+4.63	5.71	149
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.41	15.69 15.67 to 15.70	+4.28	5.21	114
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.60	14.41 14.33 to 14.48	+3.81	4.93	134
Advanced Education	Human Capital	12.55	15.76 15.74 to 15.78	+3.21	3.51	61
Population Health	Human Capital	10.23	13.41 13.39 to 13.42	+3.18	3.92	77
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.73	13.88 13.83 to 13.91	+2.15	3.30	48
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.35	13.46 13.41 to 13.51	+2.11	2.96	61
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.85	14.67 14.57 to 14.74	+1.82	3.24	84
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	13.57 13.53 to 13.61	+1.59	2.48	60
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	11.32 11.31 to 11.32	+1.49	3.10	61
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	12.47 12.43 to 12.50	+1.47	2.74	84
Land Power	National Security	11.47	12.68 12.67 to 12.71	+1.21	2.28	77
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.16	12.10 12.04 to 12.22	+0.94	2.41	61
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.77	11.37 11.24 to 11.50	+0.60	2.35	37
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.06	11.65 11.63 to 11.67	+0.59	1.82	36
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	11.01 11.00 to 11.03	+0.38	0.59	12
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	10.63 10.60 to 10.65	+0.36	1.87	37
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.57	11.88 11.84 to 11.91	+0.31	1.29	36
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	10.40 10.29 to 10.52	+0.11	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	11.64	11.74 11.58 to 11.87	+0.10	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	0.00	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	11.03	10.99 10.98 to 10.99	−0.04	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	12.95	12.84 12.74 to 12.92	−0.11	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.11	3.79 3.79 to 3.80	−0.32	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	4.74	4.39 4.38 to 4.39	−0.35	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	9.50 9.49 to 9.51	−0.43	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	6.13	5.66 5.64 to 5.68	−0.47	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	11.64 11.50 to 11.78	−0.51	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.71	10.20 10.16 to 10.25	−0.51	0.58	12
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.73	9.19 9.18 to 9.21	−0.54	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	6.00 5.98 to 6.01	−0.58	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	11.84	11.26 11.24 to 11.27	−0.58	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	10.20	9.62 9.62 to 9.62	−0.58	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	10.45	9.87 9.87 to 9.88	−0.58	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	13.83	13.24 13.20 to 13.28	−0.59	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.77	6.16 6.14 to 6.17	−0.61	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	9.25	8.60 8.56 to 8.67	−0.65	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	5.70 5.67 to 5.72	−0.66	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	4.47 4.46 to 4.48	−0.71	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	7.90 7.90 to 7.92	−0.73	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	9.85 9.82 to 9.87	−0.76	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.60	9.83 9.80 to 9.85	−0.77	0.71	12
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	10.64	9.82 9.71 to 9.93	−0.82	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	10.90	10.07 9.95 to 10.16	−0.83	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	5.77 5.74 to 5.80	−0.84	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.40	7.52 7.46 to 7.56	−0.88	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	9.48 9.40 to 9.58	−0.89	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	8.72	7.78 7.68 to 7.86	−0.94	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	8.96	7.99 7.97 to 8.01	−0.97	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.52	10.49 10.48 to 10.53	−1.03	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	7.85	6.79 6.78 to 6.81	−1.06	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	11.51	10.43 10.32 to 10.52	−1.08	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	6.30	5.17 5.15 to 5.18	−1.13	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.07	8.94 8.87 to 9.01	−1.13	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.62	10.46 10.41 to 10.50	−1.16	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	10.02 10.00 to 10.05	−1.18	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	7.20 7.17 to 7.23	−1.22	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	8.43 8.39 to 8.46	−1.31	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	9.63	8.24 8.22 to 8.26	−1.39	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.55	10.15 10.12 to 10.18	−1.40	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.31 7.27 to 7.34	−1.40	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	7.36	5.93 5.92 to 5.94	−1.43	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.22	9.78 9.76 to 9.81	−1.44	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.50	8.05 8.03 to 8.08	−1.45	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.47	9.02 8.98 to 9.06	−1.45	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.49	9.97 9.96 to 9.99	−1.52	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.57	9.91 9.86 to 9.97	−1.66	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	9.46	7.71 7.70 to 7.72	−1.75	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	8.04 8.02 to 8.07	−1.88	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.44	7.40 7.36 to 7.44	−2.04	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	11.43	8.98 8.92 to 9.04	−2.45	0.50	12

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.1e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 16.217
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.78 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 5 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 47; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.062; most funded group hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 53% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 2.6% since cycle-002 (9.54 to 9.79); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 2.8% since cycle-002 (693.47 to 712.75); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-pol. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Poland (POL)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Core disaster in year 1, Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Severe pandemic in year 24, Hybrid coercion in year 25, Regional war spillover in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 305.4 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.2 seconds in all; 1827 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.