Simulation 22
Poland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 22: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.92 at the 1996 position, 9.79 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 22
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.79 (−0.13)
- From 9.92
- Rank by index
- 48
- From 47
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Core disaster | 9.76 −0.156 |
| 1998 |
| 9.78 +0.021 | |
| 1999 |
| 9.80 +0.017 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.81 +0.013 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.82 +0.013 | |
| 2002 |
| 9.84 +0.016 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.86 +0.018 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 9.97 +0.115 |
| 2005 |
| 10.10 +0.125 | |
| 2006 |
| 10.23 +0.136 | |
| 2007 |
| 10.29 +0.053 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.18 −0.111 |
| 2009 |
| 10.22 +0.048 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.26 +0.041 | |
| 2011 |
| 10.30 +0.032 | |
| 2012 |
| 10.32 +0.028 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.35 +0.026 | |
| 2014 |
| 10.38 +0.027 | |
| 2015 |
| 10.41 +0.028 | |
| 2016 |
| 10.43 +0.029 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.47 +0.032 | |
| 2018 |
| 10.50 +0.038 | |
| 2019 |
| 10.54 +0.040 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 10.11 −0.431 |
| 2021 |
| Hybrid coercion | 9.99 −0.120 |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 9.65 −0.341 |
| 2023 |
| 9.69 +0.041 | |
| 2024 |
| 9.72 +0.031 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.76 +0.031 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.79 +0.034 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.132 | −86.9 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.543 | +108.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.008 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.008 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.533 | +37.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.427 | +30.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.234 | +16.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.27 | 13.92 | +7.65 | +8.18 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.06 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 15.54 | +5.73 | +6.93 | 0.00 | −1.20 | 0.00 |
| Air Power | National Security | 9.09 | 13.73 | +4.64 | +5.72 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.06 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.41 | 15.70 | +4.29 | +5.21 | 0.00 | −0.93 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.60 | 14.33 | +3.73 | +4.94 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.26 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 12.55 | 15.75 | +3.20 | +3.51 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.03 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.23 | 13.42 | +3.19 | +3.93 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.08 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 11.73 | 13.86 | +2.13 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.35 | 13.42 | +2.07 | +2.96 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.17 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.85 | 14.70 | +1.85 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.27 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 13.55 | +1.57 | +2.49 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.03 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.83 | 11.32 | +1.49 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 12.46 | +1.46 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.06 |
| Land Power | National Security | 11.47 | 12.69 | +1.22 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.04 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.16 | 12.18 | +1.02 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.06 | 11.66 | +0.60 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.77 | 11.19 | +0.42 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −2.37 | +0.41 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.63 | 11.02 | +0.39 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 10.27 | 10.63 | +0.36 | +1.87 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.57 | 11.90 | +0.33 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.14 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.64 | 11.87 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.62 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.29 | 10.27 | −0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.39 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 11.03 | 10.98 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | 0.00 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.95 | 12.79 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.21 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.11 | 3.80 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.74 | 4.39 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.93 | 9.50 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.13 | 5.65 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 10.71 | 10.23 | −0.48 | +0.58 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.08 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.73 | 9.19 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.15 | 11.59 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.32 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.45 | 9.88 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 6.58 | 6.00 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 10.20 | 9.62 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.84 | 11.25 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.25 | 8.65 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.19 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 6.77 | 6.17 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.05 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.36 | 5.72 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.09 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 13.83 | 13.14 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.02 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 4.47 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 8.63 | 7.92 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.61 | 9.82 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.09 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 9.58 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.43 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.60 | 9.79 | −0.81 | +0.71 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.61 | 5.79 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.15 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.40 | 7.55 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.14 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.90 | 10.03 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.22 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.64 | 9.75 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.30 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.72 | 7.82 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.32 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.51 | 10.53 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | +0.42 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.96 | 7.98 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.08 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 10.53 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.09 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.85 | 6.81 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.04 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.07 | 9.02 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.02 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.62 | 10.49 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.14 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.30 | 5.17 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.05 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.20 | 10.05 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.42 | 7.20 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.13 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 9.74 | 8.43 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.71 | 7.34 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.63 | 8.23 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.47 | 9.06 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.05 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.36 | 5.93 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.55 | 10.11 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | +0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.22 | 9.76 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.13 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 8.04 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.49 | 9.97 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.09 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.57 | 9.90 | −1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.12 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.46 | 7.72 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 8.04 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.86 | −0.02 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 9.44 | 7.41 | −2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.16 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.43 | 8.96 | −2.47 | +0.50 | 0.00 | −2.77 | −0.19 |
Seed 22 of experiment cycle-003.e4-pol. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.