Simulation 21
Rwanda, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 21: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.13 at the 1996 position, 4.54 in 2026; 148 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 19 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 22 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 4.54 (−0.59)
- From 5.13
- Rank by index
- 130
- From 116
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 5.14 +0.001 | |
| 1998 |
| Regional war spillover | 4.96 −0.173 |
| 1999 |
| 4.96 +0.001 | |
| 2000 |
| Breadbasket failure | 4.83 −0.136 |
| 2001 |
| 4.83 +0.001 | |
| 2002 |
| 4.83 0.000 | |
| 2003 |
| 4.83 0.000 | |
| 2004 |
| 4.83 +0.003 | |
| 2005 |
| 4.83 +0.003 | |
| 2006 |
| 4.84 +0.005 | |
| 2007 |
| 4.84 +0.005 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 4.75 −0.097 |
| 2009 |
| 4.76 +0.016 | |
| 2010 |
| 4.78 +0.015 | |
| 2011 |
| 4.79 +0.015 | |
| 2012 |
| 4.81 +0.014 | |
| 2013 |
| 4.82 +0.013 | |
| 2014 |
| 4.83 +0.013 | |
| 2015 |
| 4.85 +0.018 | |
| 2016 |
| 4.87 +0.021 | |
| 2017 |
| 4.90 +0.023 | |
| 2018 |
| 4.92 +0.019 | |
| 2019 |
| 4.93 +0.016 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 4.74 −0.188 |
| 2021 |
| 4.75 +0.007 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 4.54 −0.214 |
| 2023 |
| 4.54 +0.001 | |
| 2024 |
| 4.54 −0.002 | |
| 2025 |
| 4.54 +0.001 | |
| 2026 |
| 4.54 +0.005 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| National Security | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Information & Influence | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Governance & Integrity | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Financial Strength | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Production & Innovation | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Trade & Investment | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.340 | −25.6 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.983 | +68.4 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.005 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.006 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.004 | −0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.003 | −0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.237 | +16.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.215 | +14.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.196 | +14.1 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.02 | 4.01 | +1.99 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 6.84 | 8.66 | +1.82 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 5.44 | 6.35 | +0.91 | +1.83 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.08 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 6.74 | 7.34 | +0.60 | +1.34 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.08 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.85 | 6.38 | +0.53 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.28 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.02 | 4.25 | +0.23 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.06 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 6.14 | 6.22 | +0.08 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.10 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.03 | +1.20 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.18 | 6.17 | −0.01 | +1.42 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.16 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 6.67 | 6.64 | −0.03 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.14 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 5.26 | 5.19 | −0.07 | +0.48 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.02 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 5.25 | 5.17 | −0.08 | +0.82 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 4.42 | 4.31 | −0.11 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.05 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 5.28 | 5.16 | −0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.42 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 0.67 | 0.54 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 0.95 | 0.82 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.04 | 0.90 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.20 | 1.03 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.03 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 1.83 | 1.60 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −0.02 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 1.29 | 1.06 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.92 | 7.61 | −0.31 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.02 |
| Air Power | National Security | 2.68 | 2.35 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.05 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.55 | 2.21 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.36 | 6.02 | −0.34 | +0.55 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.08 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 4.93 | 4.58 | −0.35 | +0.25 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.06 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 2.94 | 2.57 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.04 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.38 | 2.97 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.07 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 4.25 | 3.82 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 6.48 | 6.05 | −0.43 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.02 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 7.18 | 6.68 | −0.50 | +0.59 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.16 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 4.72 | 4.21 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.18 | 2.66 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 5.14 | 4.61 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.03 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 5.61 | 5.08 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.02 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 5.68 | 5.13 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 6.01 | 5.46 | −0.55 | +0.76 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.03 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 3.36 | 2.80 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | 0.00 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 4.56 | 3.99 | −0.57 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.03 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 3.91 | 3.33 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 5.98 | 5.40 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | 0.00 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 3.61 | 3.02 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.11 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 6.10 | 5.51 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 5.52 | 4.88 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.11 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 3.83 | 3.17 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.11 |
| Land Power | National Security | 5.59 | 4.90 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 6.38 | 5.66 | −0.72 | +0.50 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 5.12 | 4.35 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.07 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 5.16 | 4.38 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 3.59 | 2.78 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.09 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 8.24 | 7.41 | −0.83 | +0.70 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.06 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.25 | 5.40 | −0.85 | +0.38 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.31 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 4.54 | 3.69 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 6.51 | 5.59 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 5.04 | 4.10 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 4.72 | 3.77 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.12 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 6.97 | 5.97 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.33 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 5.77 | 4.76 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.07 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 4.83 | 3.78 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 6.97 | 5.86 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.15 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 7.30 | 6.19 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 7.36 | 6.21 | −1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.12 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 4.65 | 3.44 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.13 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.24 | 4.94 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.13 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 5.44 | 4.13 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.10 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 6.43 | 5.11 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.05 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 6.76 | 5.44 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 6.10 | 4.76 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.16 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 6.90 | 5.51 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.80 | 6.38 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.37 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 5.87 | 4.17 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.18 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 5.88 | 3.95 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.99 | +0.06 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 6.66 | 4.37 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.12 | −0.17 |
Seed 21 of experiment cycle-003.e4-rwa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.