A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-rwa

Simulation 22

Rwanda, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 22: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 5.13 at the 1996 position, 4.55 in 2026; 148 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 22

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 21 (median simulation), 19 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 4.55 (−0.59); From 5.13
Rank by index: 130; From 116
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2		5.14 +0.001
1998	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2	Regional war spillover	4.96 −0.173
1999	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2		4.96 +0.001
2000	Build Internal Security & Order 2 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2 Build Population Health 2 Build Social Infrastructure 2 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 2	Breadbasket failure	4.83 −0.135
2001	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.83 +0.001
2002	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.83 0.000
2003	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.83 0.000
2004	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.83 +0.003
2005	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.84 +0.003
2006	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.84 +0.005
2007	Build Foundational Education 2 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2 Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2		4.85 +0.005
2008	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 2	Global funding seizure	4.75 −0.096
2009	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 2		4.77 +0.016
2010	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 2		4.78 +0.015
2011	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 2		4.80 +0.015
2012	Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 2 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 2 Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Partner Financial System Depth & Access 2		4.81 +0.014
2013	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Build Digital & AI Competence 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		4.82 +0.013
2014	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Build Digital & AI Competence 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		4.84 +0.013
2015	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Build Digital & AI Competence 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		4.86 +0.018
2016	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Build Digital & AI Competence 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		4.88 +0.021
2017	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5 Build Digital & AI Competence 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5		4.90 +0.023
2018	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Build Health System Capability 2		4.92 +0.019
2019	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Build Health System Capability 2		4.93 +0.016
2020	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Build Health System Capability 2	Severe pandemic	4.75 −0.188
2021	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Build Health System Capability 2		4.75 +0.007
2022	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Build Health System Capability 2	Breadbasket failure	4.54 −0.213
2023	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Build Health System Capability 2		4.54 +0.001
2024	Build Energy Infrastructure 2 Build Transport Infrastructure 2 Build Advanced Manufacturing 2 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Build Health System Capability 2		4.54 −0.001
2025	Partner Artificial Intelligence 2 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 2		4.54 +0.002
2026	Partner Artificial Intelligence 2 Partner Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 Partner Digital & AI Competence 2 Partner Innovation & Commercialisation 2		4.55 +0.005

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Information & Influence	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Governance & Integrity	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Financial Strength	23	23	24	24	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	25	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	26	27	27	29	29	29	29	29
Production & Innovation	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	19	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Trade & Investment	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.340	−25.6
No shocks	+0.983	+68.4
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.005	−0.5
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.006	−0.5
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.006	−0.4
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.004	−0.3
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.003	−0.2
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.237	+16.5
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.215	+14.9
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.196	+14.1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	2.02	4.01	+1.99	+2.30	−0.32	0.00
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	6.84	8.68	+1.84	+2.56	−0.73	+0.01
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	5.44	6.32	+0.88	+1.83	−1.00	+0.05
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	6.74	7.35	+0.61	+1.34	−0.66	−0.07
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	5.85	6.38	+0.53	+1.81	−1.00	−0.28
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.02	4.25	+0.23	+1.26	−0.96	−0.06
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	6.14	6.17	+0.03	+1.54	−1.36	−0.15
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	4.39	4.42	+0.03	+1.20	−1.13	−0.04
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.18	6.20	+0.02	+1.42	−1.26	−0.14
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−0.01
Foundational Education	Human Capital	6.67	6.67	0.00	+0.97	−0.86	−0.11
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.28	5.25	−0.03	0.00	−0.54	+0.51
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	5.26	5.18	−0.08	+0.48	−0.53	−0.03
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	5.25	5.17	−0.08	+0.82	−0.88	−0.02
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	4.42	4.32	−0.10	+0.76	−0.81	−0.04
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	0.67	0.54	−0.13	0.00	−0.11	−0.02
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	0.95	0.82	−0.13	0.00	−0.11	−0.02
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.04	0.91	−0.13	0.00	−0.12	−0.02
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.20	1.04	−0.16	0.00	−0.14	−0.03
Maritime Power	National Security	1.29	1.07	−0.22	0.00	−0.18	−0.03
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	1.83	1.60	−0.23	0.00	−0.21	−0.02
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.92	7.61	−0.31	+0.73	−1.03	−0.01
Air Power	National Security	2.68	2.36	−0.32	0.00	−0.27	−0.04
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	2.22	−0.33	0.00	−0.29	−0.04
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	4.59	−0.34	+0.25	−0.54	−0.05
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	6.36	6.02	−0.34	+0.55	−0.82	−0.07
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	2.94	2.57	−0.37	0.00	−0.33	−0.04
Space Operations	National Security	3.38	2.97	−0.41	0.00	−0.34	−0.07
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	4.25	3.82	−0.43	0.00	−0.42	−0.01
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	6.48	6.02	−0.46	+0.46	−0.87	−0.05
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	4.72	4.20	−0.52	0.00	−0.47	−0.05
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	5.14	4.62	−0.52	0.00	−0.50	−0.02
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.18	6.65	−0.53	+0.59	−0.93	−0.19
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	6.01	5.48	−0.53	+0.76	−1.28	−0.01
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	3.18	2.65	−0.53	0.00	−0.49	−0.04
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	5.61	5.07	−0.54	0.00	−0.55	+0.01
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	5.68	5.13	−0.55	0.00	−0.54	−0.01
Advanced Education	Human Capital	6.10	5.54	−0.56	0.00	−0.59	+0.03
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	3.36	2.80	−0.56	0.00	−0.55	0.00
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	3.61	3.04	−0.57	0.00	−0.47	−0.10
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	4.56	3.98	−0.58	+0.21	−0.76	−0.04
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	3.91	3.33	−0.58	0.00	−0.54	−0.04
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	5.98	5.39	−0.59	0.00	−0.58	−0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	5.52	4.89	−0.63	0.00	−0.54	−0.10
Land Power	National Security	5.59	4.94	−0.65	0.00	−0.55	−0.10
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	3.83	3.15	−0.68	0.00	−0.55	−0.13
Population Health	Human Capital	6.38	5.65	−0.73	+0.50	−1.10	−0.13
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	5.12	4.37	−0.75	0.00	−0.70	−0.05
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	5.16	4.39	−0.77	0.00	−0.73	−0.05
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.25	5.45	−0.80	+0.38	−0.93	−0.26
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	3.59	2.78	−0.81	0.00	−0.71	−0.10
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	8.24	7.43	−0.81	+0.70	−1.48	−0.03
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	4.54	3.69	−0.85	0.00	−0.83	−0.02
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	6.97	6.05	−0.92	0.00	−0.67	−0.25
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	6.51	5.58	−0.93	0.00	−0.91	−0.01
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	4.72	3.78	−0.94	0.00	−0.83	−0.10
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	5.04	4.06	−0.98	0.00	−0.95	−0.02
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	5.77	4.76	−1.01	0.00	−0.95	−0.06
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	4.83	3.77	−1.06	0.00	−1.01	−0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	6.97	5.85	−1.12	0.00	−0.97	−0.16
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	7.36	6.23	−1.13	0.00	−1.03	−0.10
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	7.30	6.16	−1.14	0.00	−0.96	−0.18
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	4.65	3.45	−1.20	0.00	−1.08	−0.11
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	6.76	5.49	−1.27	0.00	−1.31	+0.04
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.80	6.51	−1.29	0.00	−1.06	−0.23
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.24	4.94	−1.30	0.00	−1.17	−0.12
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	6.10	4.79	−1.31	0.00	−1.18	−0.13
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	5.44	4.13	−1.31	0.00	−1.21	−0.10
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	6.43	5.09	−1.34	0.00	−1.27	−0.07
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	6.90	5.52	−1.38	0.00	−1.36	−0.03
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	5.87	4.20	−1.67	0.00	−1.53	−0.15
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	5.88	3.93	−1.95	0.00	−1.99	+0.04
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	6.66	4.36	−2.30	0.00	−2.12	−0.19

Seed 22 of experiment cycle-003.e4-rwa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.