Simulation 17
Türkiye, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 17: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.83 at the 1996 position, 8.25 in 2026; 211 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 17
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 24 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.25 (−2.59)
- From 10.83
- Rank by index
- 64
- From 36
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 9 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 10.59 −0.243 |
| 1998 |
| 10.63 +0.036 | |
| 1999 |
| Core disaster | 10.20 −0.422 |
| 2000 |
| 10.24 +0.034 | |
| 2001 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.02 −0.217 |
| 2002 |
| 10.04 +0.021 | |
| 2003 |
| 10.06 +0.015 | |
| 2004 |
| 10.08 +0.018 | |
| 2005 |
| 10.10 +0.027 | |
| 2006 |
| 10.13 +0.030 | |
| 2007 |
| 10.17 +0.037 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.02 −0.151 |
| 2009 |
| 10.04 +0.022 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.07 +0.029 | |
| 2011 |
| Regional war spillover | 9.65 −0.424 |
| 2012 |
| 9.70 +0.050 | |
| 2013 |
| 9.74 +0.044 | |
| 2014 |
| 9.79 +0.047 | |
| 2015 |
| 9.83 +0.045 | |
| 2016 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.46 −0.374 |
| 2017 |
| 9.50 +0.038 | |
| 2018 |
| 9.52 +0.027 | |
| 2019 |
| 9.54 +0.023 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 9.22 −0.326 |
| 2021 |
| 9.23 +0.008 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 8.89 −0.339 |
| 2023 |
| Core disaster | 8.31 −0.578 |
| 2024 |
| 8.29 −0.016 | |
| 2025 |
| 8.27 −0.026 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.25 −0.020 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Financial Strength | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| Production & Innovation | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.197 | −96.8 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +3.646 | +254.6 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.004 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.001 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.001 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.001 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.001 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.625 | +44.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.495 | +35.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.566 | +40.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 6.58 | 14.49 | +7.91 | +9.28 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.16 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 6.77 | 14.24 | +7.47 | +8.88 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.19 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 8.63 | 13.73 | +5.10 | +6.65 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.19 |
| Air Power | National Security | 14.06 | 18.04 | +3.98 | +5.93 | 0.00 | −2.57 | +0.61 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.31 | 13.97 | +1.66 | +5.41 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.89 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.11 | 13.60 | +1.49 | +4.44 | 0.00 | −2.82 | −0.14 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.95 | 12.68 | +0.73 | +4.28 | 0.00 | −3.12 | −0.44 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.25 | 9.86 | −0.39 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.26 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.63 | 10.04 | −0.59 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 2.06 | 1.40 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 3.96 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.14 | 8.26 | −0.88 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.11 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.07 | 4.13 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.08 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.13 | 4.86 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.26 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 8.52 | −1.29 | +3.97 | 0.00 | −4.89 | −0.36 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.06 | 6.75 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 10.39 | 8.92 | −1.47 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −3.60 | −0.28 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 13.80 | −1.53 | +3.29 | 0.00 | −4.45 | −0.37 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.87 | 7.22 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.22 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.85 | 8.09 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | +0.18 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.10 | 8.26 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.12 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 6.37 | 4.51 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.36 | 4.49 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.16 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.09 | 7.21 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.12 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.19 | 10.24 | −1.95 | +3.57 | 0.00 | −4.89 | −0.63 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.33 | 8.38 | −1.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | +0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.66 | 7.62 | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | −0.13 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 9.88 | −2.10 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −4.70 | −0.39 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.29 | 7.16 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.35 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.07 | 6.85 | −2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | −0.27 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.53 | 7.30 | −2.23 | +0.06 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.21 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.41 | 8.15 | −2.26 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −4.70 | −0.75 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.86 | 8.59 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.24 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 6.49 | −2.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.97 | 8.35 | −2.62 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −5.17 | −0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.31 | 6.61 | −2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.17 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.15 | 7.45 | −2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.56 | −0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.43 | 12.68 | −2.75 | +0.67 | 0.00 | −2.94 | −0.47 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.96 | 8.15 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.69 | −0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 12.29 | 9.41 | −2.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.15 | 9.26 | −2.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.13 | +0.24 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.27 | 13.34 | −2.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.77 | −0.17 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.30 | 8.33 | −2.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.18 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 13.06 | 9.96 | −3.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.92 | −0.18 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 9.13 | 5.98 | −3.15 | +2.53 | 0.00 | −5.47 | −0.21 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.18 | 10.99 | −3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.40 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.34 | 13.14 | −3.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.72 | −0.48 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 9.87 | 6.54 | −3.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.48 | +0.15 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.42 | 5.02 | −3.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.19 | −0.21 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 6.92 | −3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.38 | −0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 9.87 | 6.36 | −3.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.20 | −0.32 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.80 | 7.05 | −3.75 | +0.95 | 0.00 | −4.06 | −0.63 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 7.24 | −3.76 | +0.06 | 0.00 | −3.50 | −0.32 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 12.09 | 8.32 | −3.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.98 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.22 | 8.26 | −3.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.90 | −0.06 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 10.94 | 6.90 | −4.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.87 | −0.16 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.26 | 8.14 | −4.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.67 | −0.45 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 12.82 | 8.70 | −4.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.93 | −0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.18 | 8.02 | −4.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.65 | −0.50 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 10.27 | 5.96 | −4.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.23 | −0.08 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 5.56 | −4.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.84 | −0.53 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 13.47 | 9.03 | −4.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.46 | +0.02 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.63 | 7.06 | −4.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.02 | −0.55 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.20 | 8.62 | −4.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.97 | −0.61 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.64 | 6.83 | −4.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.16 | −0.65 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 15.60 | 10.68 | −4.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.72 | −1.20 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 12.78 | 7.79 | −4.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.36 | −0.64 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.06 | 5.82 | −5.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.93 | −0.31 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.63 | 9.31 | −5.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.97 | −0.35 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.24 | 5.89 | −5.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.95 | −0.40 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.98 | 5.59 | −5.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −5.43 | +0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 10.32 | 4.39 | −5.93 | +1.96 | 0.00 | −7.45 | −0.45 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.66 | 5.59 | −7.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −6.89 | −0.17 |
Seed 17 of experiment cycle-003.e4-tur. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.