A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-tur

Simulation 24

Türkiye, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 24: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.83 at the 1996 position, 8.22 in 2026; 211 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 24

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 3 (median simulation), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 8.22 (−2.61); From 10.83
Rank by index: 64; From 36
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Legitimacy rupture	10.59 −0.243
1998	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		10.63 +0.035
1999	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Core disaster	10.20 −0.422
2000	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 8 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 8 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		10.23 +0.033
2001	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Global funding seizure	10.02 −0.218
2002	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4 Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Foundational Education 7 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 7		10.04 +0.019
2003	Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Foundational Education 7 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 7		10.05 +0.014
2004	Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Foundational Education 7 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 7		10.07 +0.019
2005	Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Foundational Education 7 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7		10.10 +0.028
2006	Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Foundational Education 7 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7		10.13 +0.030
2007	Partner Health System Capability 7 Partner Foundational Education 7 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7		10.16 +0.037
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7	Global funding seizure	10.01 −0.152
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7		10.03 +0.021
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Air Power 17 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 17 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 17 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 17 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 17		10.06 +0.028
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Air Power 17 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 17 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 17 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 17 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 17	Regional war spillover	9.64 −0.424
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 7 Build Financial Infrastructure 7 Build Social Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Air Power 17 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 17 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 17 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 17 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 17		9.69 +0.048
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Air Power 16 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 16 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 16 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 16 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 16		9.73 +0.043
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Air Power 16 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 16 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 16 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 16 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 16		9.78 +0.046
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Air Power 16 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 16 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 16 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 16 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 16		9.82 +0.045
2016	Build Air Power 16 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 16 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 16 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 16 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 16	Legitimacy rupture	9.45 −0.374
2017	Build Air Power 16 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 16 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 16 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 16 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 16		9.48 +0.037
2018	Build Air Power 15 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 15 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 15 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 15 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 15		9.51 +0.026
2019	Build Air Power 15 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 15 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 15 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 15 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 9		9.53 +0.022
2020	Build Air Power 15 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 15 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 15 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 0	Severe pandemic	9.20 −0.327
2021	Build Air Power 15 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 15 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 12		9.21 +0.006
2022	Build Air Power 15 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 15 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 10	Regional war spillover	8.87 −0.340
2023	Build Air Power 14 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 9	Core disaster	8.29 −0.581
2024	Build Air Power 14 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 13		8.27 −0.018
2025	Build Air Power 12 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 11		8.24 −0.028
2026	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Population Health 5 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 5		8.22 −0.020

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5
Strategic Infrastructure	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4
National Security	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3
Human Capital	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12
Information & Influence	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	12	12	12	12	11	12	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Financial Strength	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	19	19	22	22	22	22	22
Production & Innovation	6	6	6	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	14	14	14	14
Trade & Investment	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	8	8

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−1.197	−96.8
No shocks	+3.646	+254.6
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.004	+0.3
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.001	+0.1
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.001	+0.1
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.001	−0.1
Without the 5th largest decision	0.001	+0.1
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.625	+44.1
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.495	+35.8
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.566	+40.6

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	14.50	+7.92	+9.25	−1.21	−0.11
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.77	14.19	+7.42	+8.82	−1.22	−0.19
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	13.54	+4.91	+6.43	−1.36	−0.17
Air Power	National Security	14.06	17.83	+3.77	+5.94	−2.58	+0.40
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.31	13.91	+1.60	+5.29	−2.87	−0.82
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	13.60	+1.49	+4.43	−2.83	−0.12
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	12.64	+0.69	+4.27	−3.12	−0.46
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	9.89	−0.36	+2.31	−2.45	−0.22
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	10.03	−0.60	+1.82	−2.40	−0.01
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	2.06	1.40	−0.66	0.00	−0.61	−0.04
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	3.95	−0.74	0.00	−0.81	+0.07
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	8.22	−0.92	+2.02	−2.80	−0.14
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	5.07	4.14	−0.93	0.00	−0.87	−0.07
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	6.13	4.97	−1.16	0.00	−1.03	−0.13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	8.57	−1.24	+3.95	−4.90	−0.28
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	8.06	6.75	−1.31	0.00	−1.33	+0.01
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	13.72	−1.61	+3.29	−4.46	−0.44
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.87	7.25	−1.62	0.00	−1.43	−0.19
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.39	8.74	−1.65	+2.42	−3.61	−0.45
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.05	−1.80	0.00	−1.93	+0.14
Space Operations	National Security	6.37	4.53	−1.84	0.00	−1.80	−0.04
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	4.50	−1.86	0.00	−1.71	−0.15
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	8.23	−1.87	0.00	−1.96	+0.09
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.19	10.31	−1.88	+3.55	−4.90	−0.53
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	7.16	−1.93	0.00	−1.76	−0.17
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.33	8.32	−2.01	0.00	−1.97	−0.03
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.66	7.57	−2.09	0.00	−1.91	−0.19
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	9.89	−2.09	+2.99	−4.71	−0.38
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	7.18	−2.11	0.00	−1.78	−0.32
Population Health	Human Capital	9.53	7.35	−2.18	+0.06	−2.08	−0.16
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	6.87	−2.20	0.00	−1.95	−0.24
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.86	8.51	−2.35	0.00	−2.02	−0.33
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	6.44	−2.45	0.00	−2.29	−0.15
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.41	7.90	−2.51	+3.20	−4.67	−1.03
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.34	−2.63	+2.55	−5.17	0.00
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.15	7.49	−2.66	0.00	−2.56	−0.09
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.31	6.59	−2.72	0.00	−2.52	−0.19
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.43	12.66	−2.77	+0.67	−2.95	−0.48
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.96	8.10	−2.86	0.00	−2.69	−0.16
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	9.27	−2.88	0.00	−3.14	+0.26
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	12.29	9.40	−2.89	0.00	−2.86	−0.03
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.30	8.33	−2.97	0.00	−2.80	−0.17
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	13.06	10.05	−3.01	0.00	−2.93	−0.09
Land Power	National Security	16.27	13.24	−3.03	0.00	−2.77	−0.26
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.18	11.05	−3.13	0.00	−2.80	−0.33
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.34	13.17	−3.17	0.00	−2.72	−0.45
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	5.87	−3.26	+2.57	−5.44	−0.39
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	9.87	6.55	−3.32	0.00	−3.49	+0.17
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	7.02	−3.35	0.00	−3.41	+0.06
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	4.90	−3.52	0.00	−3.18	−0.35
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	9.87	6.31	−3.56	0.00	−3.19	−0.37
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	7.17	−3.63	+0.95	−4.10	−0.48
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	7.23	−3.77	+0.06	−3.50	−0.32
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	12.09	8.22	−3.87	0.00	−2.79	−1.08
Maritime Power	National Security	12.22	8.29	−3.93	0.00	−3.90	−0.02
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	12.82	8.81	−4.01	0.00	−3.94	−0.07
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	6.80	−4.14	0.00	−3.86	−0.28
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	5.73	−4.19	0.00	−3.88	−0.30
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.18	7.92	−4.26	0.00	−3.65	−0.61
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	12.26	7.92	−4.34	0.00	−3.65	−0.69
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.47	9.07	−4.40	0.00	−4.46	+0.07
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	5.84	−4.43	0.00	−4.23	−0.21
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.20	8.71	−4.49	0.00	−3.98	−0.51
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	7.14	−4.49	0.00	−4.04	−0.46
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	6.78	−4.86	0.00	−4.16	−0.70
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	12.78	7.80	−4.98	0.00	−4.36	−0.62
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	15.60	10.55	−5.05	0.00	−3.73	−1.32
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	5.89	−5.17	0.00	−4.94	−0.23
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.63	9.45	−5.18	0.00	−4.98	−0.20
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	5.57	−5.41	0.00	−5.43	+0.02
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.24	5.67	−5.57	0.00	−4.90	−0.68
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	4.20	−6.12	+1.96	−7.35	−0.73
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	12.66	5.54	−7.12	0.00	−6.91	−0.20

Seed 24 of experiment cycle-003.e4-tur. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.