E4 · cycle-003.e4-tur

Türkiye, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Türkiye decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Legitimacy rupture in year 1, Core disaster in year 3, Global funding seizure in year 5, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Core disaster in year 27.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 8.23 (−2.60); From 10.83; 8.22 to 8.25
Rank by index: 64; From 36; 64 to 64
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 31; From 26; 31 to 31

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	10.83	8.22	8.23	8.25	higher
Rank by index	36	64	64	64	lower
Tier rank	26	31	31	31	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	780.6	609.2	610.1	610.9	higher
Goal-weighted score	780.6	609.2	610.1	610.9	higher
Resilient score	780.6	610.0 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 79 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 21 per cent of the 1,939 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Türkiye actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 10.83; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 12.18; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 8.23; 8.16 to 8.31
Skill against persistence: −1.45; group error 4.09 against 1.67 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	7.08	9.57	8.13 8.1–8.2	−1.44	right
Strategic Infrastructure	12.03	13.60	10.46 10.3–10.6	−3.14	wrong
National Security	11.16	12.68	8.82 8.7–8.9	−3.85	wrong
Human Capital	9.96	12.24	8.16 8.1–8.2	−4.08	wrong
Information & Influence	12.86	14.49	9.54 9.5–9.6	−4.95	wrong
Governance & Integrity	10.23	10.61	8.04 8.0–8.1	−2.56	wrong
Financial Strength	10.02	11.13	5.81 5.8–5.9	−5.32	wrong
Production & Innovation	11.55	12.18	7.35 7.3–7.4	−4.82	wrong
Trade & Investment	12.60	13.12	7.81 7.7–7.9	−5.31	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1997 · S05 × 0.5 The 1997 military intervention, often called the post-modern coup, forced the Islamist-led coalition government to resign and broke the elected government's authority without a full regime rupture.
1999 · S07 × 0.9 The İzmit earthquake struck Turkey's industrial heartland, killing about 17,000 people and disabling the economic core around the Marmara region.
2001 · S02 × 0.9 A domestic banking and currency crisis collapsed the lira and many banks, forcing a major IMF rescue and a severe recession.
2008 · S02 × 0.7 The global financial crisis hit Turkish exports and credit markets, though the banking sector had been partly recapitalised after 2001.
2011 · S03 × 0.8 The Syrian civil war began on Turkey's border, bringing refugees, cross-border insecurity and disrupted regional trade over the following years.
2016 · S05 × 0.8 The failed 15 July coup attempt, followed by a state of emergency and mass purges, constituted a major contested transfer of power and legitimacy rupture.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 The COVID-19 pandemic produced large case numbers, collapsed tourism revenue and strained Turkey's hospital capacity.
2022 · S03 × 0.6 Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted Black Sea shipping and raised energy and food import prices, while Turkey's mediation role partly cushioned the shock.
2023 · S07 × 1.2 The Kahramanmaraş earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people and destroyed large parts of the southern economic core, exceeding the severe-case disaster scenario.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2001 · partner · 2% each The 1996 EU customs union and later IMF programmes pushed tariff alignment, regulatory harmonisation and fiscal stabilisation, though stabilisation repeatedly failed until after the 2001 crisis. (Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls, Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Trade Policy & Market Access, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)
1997–2002 · build · 1% each Late-1990s public investment and privatisations expanded motorways, dams, irrigation, telecoms and energy supply before and alongside the 1999 earthquake recovery. (Transport Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure)
2002–2007 · partner · 2% each AKP governments used the EU candidacy process to legislate reforms, extend compulsory education to eight years and launch the Health Transformation Programme. (Health System Capability, Foundational Education, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, Financial Regulation & Integrity)
2005–2015 · build · 2% each The state and private concessionaires built divided highways, high-speed rail, airports, hydro/thermal power, public housing and mobile/internet networks. (Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Financial Infrastructure, Social Infrastructure, Energy Infrastructure)
2010–2025 · build · 5% each Embargoes and the PKK conflict drove indigenous armed UAV, missile, warship and aircraft programmes such as Bayraktar TB2, MILGEM and TAI projects. (Air Power, Sensing, Timing & Navigation, Robotics & Autonomous Systems, Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing)
2020–2026 · build · 2% each COVID-19, the 2023 earthquakes and the 2021-2024 inflation crisis forced rebuilding, health surge investment and a return to orthodox monetary policy under Mehmet Şimşek. (National Resilience & Crisis Management, Health System Capability, Population Health, Monetary & Currency Capability, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainty is the relative benchmark: Turkey's 1996 capabilities are inferred from late-1990s data and are subject to comparison error against world leaders. The mapping of real events to the synthetic event library is approximate, particularly the severity of the 1997 military intervention, Syria spillover and 2023 earthquake. Some scores, especially in critical technologies and governance, rely on thin or politicised reporting.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Türkiye played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 10.83 to a median of 8.23 (−2.60), with 90 per cent of simulations between 8.22 and 8.25 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 36 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 26. Its base income is 393 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,940 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Air Power (build, 247 credits, 12.8 per cent); Sensing, Timing & Navigation (build, 245 credits, 12.7 per cent); Robotics & Autonomous Systems (build, 208 credits, 10.7 per cent); Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure (build, 162 credits, 8.4 per cent); Advanced Materials & Manufacturing (build, 157 credits, 8.1 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 79 per cent, partner 21 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.074, and the most repeated action appeared in 57 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology; rounds 21 to 25, Critical Technology; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 9 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S07 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −36.5 points each); S03 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −29.5 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −23.9 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −7.38; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −6.90; Monetary & Currency Capability −5.43; Financial System Depth & Access −5.43 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−1.11 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.87 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Transport Infrastructure (−0.66 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 64 (5th to 95th percentile 64 to 64), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 31; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 610 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +3.646 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 3.646 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.197: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.001 and +0.004, for example 2010 build Air Power (17 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.625 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.02 from it, with 9 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 10.83 the model ends at 8.23, where the 2026 ratings put it at 12.18. Group scores miss by 4.09 points on average, against 1.67 for assuming nothing changed (skill −1.45); the change in each domain has the right sign in 11 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−5.32); furthest above: critical technology (−1.44) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.197	−96.8
No shocks	+3.646	+254.6
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.004	+0.3	2010 build Air Power (17 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	2010 build Sensing, Timing & Navigation (17 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	2010 build Robotics & Autonomous Systems (17 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.001	−0.1	2010 build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure (17 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.001	+0.1	2010 build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing (17 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.625	+44.1	2023 S07 (-40.9 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.495	+35.8	2011 S03 (-33.7 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.566	+40.6	1999 S07 (-32.1 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	8.5	−14.0
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	20.5	−29.5
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	10.5	−23.4
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	15.0	−36.5
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−23.9

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	14.49 14.44 to 14.53	+7.91	9.27	246
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.77	14.20 14.15 to 14.24	+7.43	8.83	208
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	13.57 13.36 to 13.72	+4.94	6.48	157
Air Power	National Security	14.06	17.79 17.67 to 17.91	+3.73	5.96	247
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.31	13.99 13.80 to 14.16	+1.68	5.30	163
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	13.55 13.51 to 13.61	+1.44	4.44	98
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	12.65 12.50 to 12.75	+0.70	4.27	75
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	9.85 9.77 to 9.89	−0.40	2.32	43
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	10.04 10.04 to 10.04	−0.59	1.82	38
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	2.06	1.41 1.40 to 1.42	−0.65	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	3.94 3.91 to 3.96	−0.75	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	5.07	4.13 4.12 to 4.15	−0.94	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	8.20 8.16 to 8.25	−0.94	2.02	43
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	6.13	4.88 4.85 to 4.96	−1.25	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	8.52 8.44 to 8.57	−1.29	3.96	98
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	8.06	6.73 6.71 to 6.75	−1.33	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	13.80 13.67 to 13.88	−1.53	3.29	38
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.87	7.25 7.19 to 7.28	−1.62	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.39	8.72 8.61 to 8.85	−1.67	2.42	48
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.04 8.01 to 8.10	−1.81	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	6.37	4.54 4.50 to 4.59	−1.83	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	4.50 4.47 to 4.53	−1.86	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	7.21 7.18 to 7.24	−1.88	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	8.17 8.12 to 8.23	−1.93	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.33	8.37 8.35 to 8.41	−1.96	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.19	10.17 9.97 to 10.39	−2.02	3.56	98
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	9.91 9.86 to 9.98	−2.07	2.99	81
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.66	7.57 7.52 to 7.62	−2.09	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	7.18 7.15 to 7.22	−2.11	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	6.89 6.85 to 6.95	−2.18	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	9.53	7.33 7.30 to 7.35	−2.20	0.06	5
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.86	8.56 8.50 to 8.61	−2.30	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	6.46 6.44 to 6.49	−2.43	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.41	7.93 7.85 to 8.18	−2.48	3.19	75
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.34 8.34 to 8.35	−2.63	2.55	43
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.15	7.49 7.41 to 7.51	−2.66	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.31	6.62 6.59 to 6.66	−2.69	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	9.35 9.24 to 9.47	−2.80	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.43	12.59 12.45 to 12.70	−2.84	0.67	23
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.96	8.12 8.06 to 8.16	−2.84	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	12.29	9.41 9.39 to 9.41	−2.88	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	16.27	13.33 13.14 to 13.57	−2.94	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.30	8.29 8.23 to 8.33	−3.01	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	13.06	9.97 9.92 to 10.03	−3.09	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.18	11.04 10.95 to 11.15	−3.14	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.34	13.17 13.09 to 13.25	−3.17	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	9.87	6.62 6.53 to 6.75	−3.25	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	5.85 5.74 to 5.97	−3.28	2.57	43
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	6.93 6.89 to 6.97	−3.44	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	4.90 4.84 to 4.96	−3.52	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	9.87	6.30 6.25 to 6.36	−3.57	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	12.09	8.47 8.27 to 8.58	−3.62	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	7.16 7.02 to 7.30	−3.64	0.95	23
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	7.25 7.17 to 7.30	−3.75	0.06	5
Maritime Power	National Security	12.22	8.27 8.23 to 8.34	−3.95	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	12.82	8.76 8.66 to 8.82	−4.06	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	6.85 6.80 to 6.90	−4.09	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.18	8.05 7.98 to 8.14	−4.13	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	12.26	8.06 7.92 to 8.23	−4.20	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	5.64 5.57 to 5.71	−4.28	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	5.90 5.82 to 5.96	−4.37	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.47	9.09 9.03 to 9.16	−4.38	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.20	8.70 8.56 to 8.89	−4.50	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	7.13 7.05 to 7.19	−4.50	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	15.60	10.88 10.52 to 11.16	−4.72	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	6.71 6.63 to 6.83	−4.93	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	12.78	7.84 7.80 to 8.01	−4.94	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	5.83 5.81 to 5.88	−5.23	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.63	9.37 9.31 to 9.44	−5.26	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	5.57 5.56 to 5.58	−5.41	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.24	5.83 5.69 to 5.90	−5.41	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	4.27 4.18 to 4.37	−6.05	1.97	39
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	12.66	5.53 5.49 to 5.57	−7.13	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.8e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 1.394 to 18.038
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.7e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.91 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 3 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 36; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.074; most funded group hard.national_security.air_power
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 57% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 13.3% since cycle-002 (7.27 to 8.23); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 13.7% since cycle-002 (536.57 to 610.05); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-tur. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Türkiye (TUR)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Legitimacy rupture in year 1, Core disaster in year 3, Global funding seizure in year 5, Global funding seizure in year 12, Regional war spillover in year 15, Legitimacy rupture in year 20, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Core disaster in year 27
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 392.5 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.4 seconds in all; 1827 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.