A good simulation (90th percentile) · cycle-003.e4-usa

Simulation 27

United States, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 27: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 19.15 at the 1996 position, 18.36 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 27

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 20 (median simulation), 4 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 18.36 (−0.78); From 19.15
Rank by index: 1; From 1
Domains at Tier 1: 9; From 9
Events: 8 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 54 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 54 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 54 Build Digital & Services Trade 54		19.15 +0.003
1998	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 54 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 54 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 54 Build Digital & Services Trade 54		19.15 +0.005
1999	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 54 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 54 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 54 Build Digital & Services Trade 54		19.16 +0.002
2000	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 54 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 54 Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 54 Build Trade Policy & Market Access 54 Build Digital & Services Trade 54	Global funding seizure	19.09 −0.068
2001	Build Intelligence & Assessment 109 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 109 Build Land Power 109 Build Air Power 109 Build Internal Security & Order 109	Regional war spillover	19.05 −0.042
2002	Build Intelligence & Assessment 108 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 108 Build Land Power 108 Build Air Power 108 Build Internal Security & Order 108		19.06 +0.018
2003	Build Intelligence & Assessment 108 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 108 Build Land Power 108 Build Air Power 108 Build Internal Security & Order 108		19.08 +0.019
2004	Build Intelligence & Assessment 108 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 108 Build Land Power 108 Build Air Power 108 Build Internal Security & Order 108		19.08 −0.002
2005	Build Intelligence & Assessment 108 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 108 Build Land Power 108 Build Air Power 108 Build Internal Security & Order 108	Core disaster	18.92 −0.159
2006	Build Intelligence & Assessment 108 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 108 Build Land Power 108 Build Air Power 108 Build Internal Security & Order 108		18.92 −0.004
2007	Build Intelligence & Assessment 107 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 107 Build Land Power 107 Build Air Power 107 Build Internal Security & Order 107		18.91 −0.005
2008	Build Intelligence & Assessment 107 Build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 107 Build Land Power 107 Build Air Power 107 Build Internal Security & Order 107	Global funding seizure	18.70 −0.207
2009	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 53 Build Health System Capability 53 Build Energy Technologies 53 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 53 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 53		18.71 +0.004
2010	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Energy Technologies 52 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52		18.72 +0.011
2011	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Energy Technologies 52 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52		18.73 +0.015
2012	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Energy Technologies 52 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52		18.74 +0.007
2013	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Energy Technologies 52 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52		18.74 −0.002
2014	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Energy Technologies 52 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52		18.74 −0.002
2015	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Energy Technologies 52 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52		18.74 −0.001
2016	Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Energy Technologies 52 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 52		18.74 0.000
2017	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 52 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Space Operations 52 Build Resource Infrastructure 52		18.75 +0.012
2018	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 52 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Space Operations 52 Build Resource Infrastructure 52	Trade bloc rupture	18.73 −0.015
2019	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 52 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 52 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 52 Build Space Operations 52 Build Resource Infrastructure 52		18.71 −0.021
2020	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 46 Build Force Generation & Mobilisation 46 Build Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 46 Build Space Operations 46 Build Resource Infrastructure 46	Severe pandemic	18.42 −0.294
2021	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 46 Build Energy Technologies 46 Build Transport Infrastructure 46 Build Health System Capability 46 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 46	Hybrid coercionLegitimacy rupture	18.33 −0.085
2022	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 51 Build Energy Technologies 51 Build Transport Infrastructure 51 Build Health System Capability 51 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 51		18.35 +0.014
2023	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 51 Build Energy Technologies 51 Build Transport Infrastructure 51 Build Health System Capability 51 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 51		18.36 +0.015
2024	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 51 Build Energy Technologies 51 Build Transport Infrastructure 51 Build Health System Capability 51 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 51		18.37 +0.006
2025	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 51 Build Energy Technologies 51 Build Transport Infrastructure 51 Build Health System Capability 51 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 51		18.37 −0.003
2026	Build Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 51 Build Energy Technologies 51 Build Transport Infrastructure 51 Build Health System Capability 51 Build Alliances & Security Cooperation 51		18.36 −0.003

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Strategic Infrastructure	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.417	−31.8
No shocks	+0.941	+64.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	0.000	−0.0
Without the 2nd largest decision	0.000	−0.0
Without the 3rd largest decision	0.000	−0.0
Without the 4th largest decision	0.000	−0.0
Without the 5th largest decision	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.284	+19.6
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.216	+14.3
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.174	+11.9

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.46	19.69	+3.23	+13.01	−0.54	−0.10
Health System Capability	Human Capital	17.45	20.00	+2.55	+8.27	−0.93	−0.14
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.76	19.96	+2.20	+4.01	−0.78	−0.22
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.13	20.00	+1.87	+4.07	−0.99	−0.18
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	19.54	20.00	+0.46	+5.40	−0.75	−0.08
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	19.92	19.96	+0.04	+1.26	−0.59	−0.11
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	20.00	20.00	0.00	+1.54	−0.78	−0.10
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	20.00	20.00	0.00	+2.75	−0.96	−0.12
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	19.95	−0.05	+1.29	−0.58	−0.12
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	20.00	19.95	−0.05	+4.91	−1.34	−0.14
Space Operations	National Security	20.00	19.94	−0.06	+1.28	−0.51	−0.18
Land Power	National Security	20.00	19.71	−0.29	+5.45	−0.45	−0.04
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	20.00	19.70	−0.30	+5.30	−0.52	−0.04
Air Power	National Security	20.00	19.66	−0.34	+5.45	−0.45	−0.08
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	20.00	19.62	−0.38	+6.55	−0.49	−0.06
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	20.00	19.62	−0.38	+3.40	−0.54	−0.07
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	20.00	19.58	−0.42	+4.08	−1.42	−0.06
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	20.00	19.57	−0.43	+3.30	−0.71	−0.03
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.15	16.64	−0.51	0.00	−0.55	+0.04
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	19.49	−0.51	0.00	−0.52	+0.01
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	20.00	19.43	−0.57	+1.92	−0.49	−0.12
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	19.40	−0.60	+2.47	−0.65	−0.03
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	17.50	16.89	−0.61	0.00	−0.55	−0.06
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	20.00	19.38	−0.62	0.00	−0.52	−0.10
Advanced Education	Human Capital	19.57	18.94	−0.63	0.00	−0.53	−0.10
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.97	15.34	−0.63	0.00	−0.56	−0.06
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	19.05	18.38	−0.67	0.00	−0.63	−0.04
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	18.24	17.55	−0.69	0.00	−0.66	−0.03
Maritime Power	National Security	20.00	19.31	−0.69	0.00	−0.66	−0.03
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.56	15.86	−0.70	0.00	−0.67	−0.03
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	17.72	17.02	−0.70	0.00	−0.61	−0.09
Population Health	Human Capital	15.48	14.78	−0.70	0.00	−0.79	+0.09
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	17.74	17.03	−0.71	0.00	−0.65	−0.06
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	20.00	19.27	−0.73	0.00	−0.68	−0.05
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	19.26	−0.74	0.00	−0.68	−0.06
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	20.00	19.22	−0.78	0.00	−0.68	−0.10
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	19.21	−0.79	0.00	−0.68	−0.11
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	20.00	19.18	−0.82	0.00	−0.68	−0.14
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	19.67	18.82	−0.85	0.00	−0.72	−0.13
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	19.15	−0.85	0.00	−0.72	−0.13
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	19.14	−0.86	0.00	−0.78	−0.08
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	16.91	15.98	−0.93	0.00	−0.93	−0.01
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.62	14.68	−0.94	0.00	−0.78	−0.16
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	19.67	18.73	−0.94	0.00	−0.72	−0.22
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	20.00	19.03	−0.97	0.00	−0.89	−0.08
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	17.76	16.78	−0.98	0.00	−0.94	−0.04
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.31	16.27	−1.04	0.00	−0.93	−0.11
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.95	−1.05	0.00	−1.08	+0.03
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	20.00	18.87	−1.13	0.00	−1.00	−0.13
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.04	15.89	−1.15	0.00	−1.07	−0.08
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	20.00	18.85	−1.15	0.00	−0.89	−0.23
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	18.82	−1.18	0.00	−0.89	−0.29
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	20.00	18.82	−1.18	0.00	−1.11	−0.06
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.82	−1.18	+2.58	−1.24	−0.14
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	18.10	16.88	−1.22	0.00	−1.16	−0.07
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	20.00	18.75	−1.25	0.00	−1.11	−0.14
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	20.00	18.73	−1.27	0.00	−1.11	−0.16
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	20.00	18.73	−1.27	0.00	−1.11	−0.17
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	19.63	18.32	−1.31	0.00	−1.11	−0.20
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	19.49	18.14	−1.35	+1.64	−2.02	−0.20
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.59	16.18	−1.41	0.00	−1.11	−0.30
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	20.00	18.59	−1.41	0.00	−1.35	−0.06
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	19.11	17.54	−1.57	0.00	−1.50	−0.07
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	18.93	17.34	−1.59	0.00	−1.43	−0.16
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.40	−1.60	0.00	−1.54	−0.06
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.35	−1.65	0.00	−1.46	−0.19
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	19.21	17.55	−1.66	0.00	−1.49	−0.17
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	20.00	18.28	−1.72	0.00	−1.67	−0.05
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	18.07	16.35	−1.72	0.00	−1.50	−0.22
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	20.00	18.26	−1.74	0.00	−1.66	−0.06
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.12	−1.88	0.00	−1.81	−0.07
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	18.87	16.92	−1.95	0.00	−1.80	−0.15
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	18.68	16.63	−2.05	0.00	−2.04	−0.01

Seed 27 of experiment cycle-003.e4-usa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.