E4 · cycle-003.e4-usa

United States, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. United States decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 4, Regional war spillover in year 5, Core disaster in year 9, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24, Hybrid coercion in year 25, Legitimacy rupture in year 25.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 18.36 (−0.79); From 19.15; 18.35 to 18.36
Rank by index: 1; From 1; 1 to 1
Domains at Tier 1: 9; From 9; 9 to 9
Tier rank: 1; From 1; 1 to 1

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	19.15	18.35	18.36	18.36	higher
Rank by index	1	1	1	1	lower
Tier rank	1	1	1	1	lower
Domains at Tier 1	9	9	9	9	higher
Score sum	1395.9	1343.6	1343.9	1344.1	higher
Goal-weighted score	1395.9	1343.6	1343.9	1344.1	higher
Resilient score	1395.9	1343.9 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 100 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 0 per cent of the 10,015 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks United States actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 19.15; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 18.03; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 18.36; 18.34 to 18.38
Skill against persistence: +0.17; group error 0.92 against 1.10 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	19.95	19.80	19.41 19.4–19.4	−0.39	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	18.72	18.35	18.29 18.3–18.3	−0.07	right
National Security	19.99	19.76	19.69 19.7–19.7	−0.07	wrong
Human Capital	17.64	15.75	17.35 17.3–17.4	+1.60	right
Information & Influence	19.49	18.14	18.56 18.5–18.6	+0.42	right
Governance & Integrity	17.70	16.01	17.39 17.4–17.4	+1.38	right
Financial Strength	19.77	18.10	18.41 18.4–18.4	+0.31	right
Production & Innovation	19.52	18.31	18.04 18.0–18.1	−0.27	right
Trade & Investment	19.54	18.03	18.09 18.1–18.1	+0.06	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2000 · S02 × 0.4 Dot-com bust and mild recession.
2001 · S03 × 0.5 9/11 attacks triggered a global conflict, though not a sea-route closure; we map to the nearest shock.
2005 · S07 × 0.5 Hurricane Katrina overwhelmed New Orleans and exposed federal emergency management failures.
2008 · S02 × 1 Global financial crisis originated in US housing and banking, freezing credit worldwide.
2018 · S01 × 0.8 US-China trade war and tariff escalation began to fragment global trade.
2020 · S10 × 1.2 COVID-19 pandemic killed over a million Americans, overwhelmed health systems and disrupted the economy.
2021 · S04 × 0.3 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack caused temporary fuel supply disruption.
2021 · S05 × 0.4 January 6 Capitol attack challenged the peaceful transfer of power, though it did not break effective government.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 1% each Clinton administration balanced the federal budget while expanding internet infrastructure and advancing trade liberalisation through NAFTA and WTO accession. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Trade Policy & Market Access, Digital & Services Trade)
2001–2008 · build · 2% each The 9/11 attacks shifted national priority to global counter-terrorism, war-fighting and homeland security. (Intelligence & Assessment, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment, Land Power, Air Power, Internal Security & Order)
2009–2016 · build · 1% each The Obama administration responded to the financial crisis with stabilisation and pursued health reform, clean energy, advanced manufacturing and cyber capability. (Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Health System Capability, Energy Technologies, Advanced Materials & Manufacturing, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations)
2017–2020 · build · 1% each The Trump administration prioritised trade confrontation, military expansion, missile defence, a Space Force and energy dominance. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Strategic Strike & Missile Defence, Space Operations, Resource Infrastructure)
2021–2026 · build · 1% each The Biden administration pushed industrial policy for semiconductors and clean energy, infrastructure investment, pandemic recovery and alliance rebuilding. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Energy Technologies, Transport Infrastructure, Health System Capability, Alliances & Security Cooperation)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The main uncertainties are in the precise 1996 scores for soft infrastructure and human capital, where US performance was uneven across states and demographic groups. The mapping of 9/11 to the event library is imperfect because the library lacks a direct terrorism category; we have used the closest available shock with an explicit caveat. Policy chunk values are stylised approximations of actual federal resource shares and should be treated as indicative rather than measured.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

United States played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 19.15 to a median of 18.36 (−0.79), with 90 per cent of simulations between 18.35 and 18.36 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 1 on the index against the frozen field, holds 9 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 1. Its base income is 5,401 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 10,014 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment (build, 863 credits, 8.6 per cent); Land Power (build, 863 credits, 8.6 per cent); Air Power (build, 863 credits, 8.6 per cent); Internal Security & Order (build, 863 credits, 8.6 per cent); Intelligence & Assessment (build, 863 credits, 8.6 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 100 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.061, and the most repeated action appeared in 47 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, National Security; rounds 11 to 15, National Security; rounds 16 to 20, Critical Technology; rounds 21 to 25, National Security; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 8 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −19.8 points each); S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −11.4 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −9.3 points each) [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −2.04; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −2.02; Investment Attraction & Projection −1.81; Labour & Employment −1.80 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.21 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.20 points); Health System Capability to Population Health (+0.22 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 1 (5th to 95th percentile 1 to 1), the median count of Tier 1 domains 9 (9 to 9) and the median tier rank 1; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,344 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.940 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.940 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.417: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between 0.000 and 0.000, for example 2001 build Intelligence & Assessment (109 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.284 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 3 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-usa/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.01 from it, with 8 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 19.15 the model ends at 18.36, where the 2026 ratings put it at 18.03. Group scores miss by 0.92 points on average, against 1.10 for assuming nothing changed (skill +0.17); the change in each domain has the right sign in 78 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: critical technology (−0.39); furthest above: human capital (+1.60) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.417	−31.8
No shocks	+0.941	+64.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.000	−0.0	2001 build Intelligence & Assessment (109 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.000	−0.0	2001 build Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment (109 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.000	−0.0	2001 build Land Power (109 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.000	−0.0	2001 build Air Power (109 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.000	0.0	2001 build Internal Security & Order (109 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.284	+19.6	2020 S10 (-19.8 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.216	+14.3	2008 S02 (-13.4 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.174	+11.9	2005 S07 (-11.4 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−7.1
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	8.0	−9.3
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	5.0	−4.5
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	25.0	−3.4
Legitimacy rupture S05	Shock	100 per cent	25.0	−3.8
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	9.0	−11.4
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−19.8

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.46	19.69 19.69 to 19.70	+3.23	13.00	864
Health System Capability	Human Capital	17.45	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+2.55	8.27	720
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.76	19.97 19.96 to 19.98	+2.21	3.96	203
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.13	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+1.87	4.05	301
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	19.54	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+0.46	5.40	720
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	19.92	19.94 19.92 to 19.95	+0.02	1.26	203
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	20.00	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	0.00	1.53	301
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	20.00	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	0.00	2.74	301
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	20.00	19.96 19.95 to 19.97	−0.04	1.29	203
Space Operations	National Security	20.00	19.94 19.93 to 19.95	−0.06	1.28	203
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	20.00	19.94 19.92 to 19.95	−0.06	4.91	419
Land Power	National Security	20.00	19.71 19.70 to 19.72	−0.29	5.45	864
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	20.00	19.68 19.67 to 19.70	−0.32	5.30	864
Air Power	National Security	20.00	19.66 19.64 to 19.67	−0.34	5.45	864
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	20.00	19.63 19.62 to 19.65	−0.37	6.55	864
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	20.00	19.61 19.60 to 19.63	−0.39	3.40	420
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	20.00	19.57 19.55 to 19.59	−0.43	3.30	420
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	20.00	19.57 19.55 to 19.59	−0.43	4.09	420
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.15	16.64 16.63 to 16.68	−0.51	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	20.00	19.49 19.48 to 19.49	−0.51	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	20.00	19.43 19.41 to 19.45	−0.57	1.92	217
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	17.50	16.90 16.88 to 16.92	−0.60	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	19.39 19.38 to 19.40	−0.61	2.47	217
Advanced Education	Human Capital	19.57	18.94 18.92 to 18.96	−0.63	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.97	15.34 15.33 to 15.36	−0.63	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	20.00	19.35 19.33 to 19.37	−0.65	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	15.48	14.83 14.76 to 14.92	−0.65	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	19.05	18.38 18.37 to 18.39	−0.67	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	18.24	17.56 17.55 to 17.57	−0.68	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	20.00	19.30 19.29 to 19.31	−0.70	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	17.74	17.03 17.02 to 17.05	−0.71	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.56	15.85 15.83 to 15.86	−0.71	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	17.72	16.99 16.97 to 17.02	−0.73	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	20.00	19.25 19.23 to 19.27	−0.75	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	20.00	19.24 19.21 to 19.25	−0.76	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	19.24 19.22 to 19.26	−0.76	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	19.22 19.21 to 19.26	−0.78	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	20.00	19.19 19.17 to 19.22	−0.81	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	19.14 19.11 to 19.16	−0.86	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	19.67	18.78 18.74 to 18.81	−0.89	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.62	14.72 14.68 to 14.74	−0.90	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	19.08 19.03 to 19.12	−0.92	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	16.91	15.98 15.97 to 15.98	−0.93	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	19.67	18.73 18.68 to 18.77	−0.94	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	20.00	19.04 19.02 to 19.05	−0.96	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	17.76	16.77 16.72 to 16.80	−0.99	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	18.97 18.93 to 18.99	−1.03	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.31	16.22 16.18 to 16.25	−1.09	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	20.00	18.88 18.84 to 18.92	−1.12	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	20.00	18.87 18.79 to 18.91	−1.13	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.04	15.88 15.86 to 15.90	−1.16	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	20.00	18.84 18.78 to 18.89	−1.16	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.84 18.82 to 18.87	−1.16	2.58	217
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	20.00	18.82 18.76 to 18.86	−1.18	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	18.10	16.87 16.86 to 16.88	−1.23	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	20.00	18.76 18.73 to 18.78	−1.24	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	20.00	18.75 18.72 to 18.77	−1.25	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	20.00	18.69 18.65 to 18.74	−1.31	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	19.63	18.29 18.26 to 18.34	−1.34	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.59	16.20 16.17 to 16.26	−1.39	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	20.00	18.60 18.58 to 18.62	−1.40	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	19.49	18.07 18.02 to 18.12	−1.42	1.64	217
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	19.11	17.54 17.53 to 17.56	−1.57	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	18.93	17.33 17.29 to 17.37	−1.60	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.39 18.36 to 18.44	−1.61	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.37 18.35 to 18.42	−1.63	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	19.21	17.54 17.51 to 17.55	−1.67	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	20.00	18.28 18.26 to 18.29	−1.72	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	18.07	16.30 16.27 to 16.35	−1.77	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	20.00	18.22 18.18 to 18.27	−1.78	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	20.00	18.15 18.11 to 18.19	−1.85	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	18.87	16.89 16.86 to 16.93	−1.98	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	18.68	16.65 16.63 to 16.66	−2.03	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 1.5e-11
passscores_in_boundsscores range 14.671 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.7e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.50 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 0 tiers (0 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 1; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 3 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.061; most funded group hard.national_security.intelligence_and_assessment
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 47% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 0.0% since cycle-002 (18.36 to 18.36); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 0.0% since cycle-002 (1343.77 to 1343.92); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-usa. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: United States (USA)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 4, Regional war spillover in year 5, Core disaster in year 9, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 22, Severe pandemic in year 24, Hybrid coercion in year 25, Legitimacy rupture in year 25
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 5,400.8 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 6.6 seconds in all; 1679 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.