Simulation 4
United States, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 19.15 at the 1996 position, 18.35 in 2026; 150 actions over 30 rounds and 8 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 20 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 18.35 (−0.79)
- From 19.15
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 1
- Domains at Tier 1
- 9
- From 9
- Events
- 8 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 19.15 +0.003 | |
| 1998 |
| 19.15 +0.005 | |
| 1999 |
| 19.16 +0.002 | |
| 2000 |
| Global funding seizure | 19.09 −0.068 |
| 2001 |
| Regional war spillover | 19.05 −0.042 |
| 2002 |
| 19.06 +0.017 | |
| 2003 |
| 19.08 +0.019 | |
| 2004 |
| 19.08 −0.002 | |
| 2005 |
| Core disaster | 18.92 −0.159 |
| 2006 |
| 18.92 −0.004 | |
| 2007 |
| 18.91 −0.006 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 18.70 −0.208 |
| 2009 |
| 18.71 +0.004 | |
| 2010 |
| 18.72 +0.010 | |
| 2011 |
| 18.73 +0.016 | |
| 2012 |
| 18.74 +0.007 | |
| 2013 |
| 18.74 −0.002 | |
| 2014 |
| 18.73 −0.002 | |
| 2015 |
| 18.73 −0.001 | |
| 2016 |
| 18.73 0.000 | |
| 2017 |
| 18.75 +0.012 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 18.73 −0.015 |
| 2019 |
| 18.71 −0.021 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 18.41 −0.295 |
| 2021 |
| Hybrid coercionLegitimacy rupture | 18.33 −0.086 |
| 2022 |
| 18.34 +0.012 | |
| 2023 |
| 18.36 +0.013 | |
| 2024 |
| 18.36 +0.005 | |
| 2025 |
| 18.36 −0.003 | |
| 2026 |
| 18.35 −0.003 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.417 | −31.8 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.941 | +64.2 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.284 | +19.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.216 | +14.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.174 | +11.9 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.46 | 19.70 | +3.24 | +13.01 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 17.45 | 20.00 | +2.55 | +8.27 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.16 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.76 | 19.98 | +2.22 | +3.91 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.10 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.13 | 20.00 | +1.87 | +4.04 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.13 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 19.54 | 20.00 | +0.46 | +5.40 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.08 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 19.92 | 19.96 | +0.04 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.12 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.06 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +2.74 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.10 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 20.00 | 19.96 | −0.04 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.11 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 20.00 | 19.93 | −0.07 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.19 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 19.92 | −0.08 | +4.91 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.17 |
| Land Power | National Security | 20.00 | 19.72 | −0.28 | +5.45 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 20.00 | 19.67 | −0.33 | +5.30 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 20.00 | 19.64 | −0.36 | +5.45 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.11 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 20.00 | 19.63 | −0.37 | +6.55 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.05 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 20.00 | 19.61 | −0.39 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.56 | −0.44 | +3.30 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.02 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.15 | 16.70 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.10 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 19.55 | −0.45 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.16 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 20.00 | 19.49 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 15.48 | 14.91 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.21 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 20.00 | 19.42 | −0.58 | +1.92 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.14 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.40 | −0.60 | +2.47 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 17.50 | 16.90 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 19.57 | 18.95 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.09 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.97 | 15.32 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.08 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 20.00 | 19.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.15 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 19.05 | 18.37 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.04 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 18.24 | 17.55 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.03 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 17.72 | 17.03 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 20.00 | 19.30 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 17.74 | 17.04 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.05 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.56 | 15.85 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.26 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.06 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.25 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.10 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.18 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.14 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.12 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.62 | 14.71 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.13 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.67 | 18.76 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.19 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.07 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.21 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 16.91 | 15.98 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.04 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.67 | 18.67 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.28 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 18.96 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.76 | 16.72 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.10 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.31 | 16.18 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | −0.20 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 18.87 | −1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.24 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.85 | −1.15 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.11 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 18.84 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.15 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 18.83 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.26 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.04 | 15.86 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.10 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 18.82 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.07 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 18.10 | 16.88 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.07 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 18.74 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.15 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 18.73 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.16 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 19.63 | 18.29 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.23 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 19.49 | 18.14 | −1.35 | +1.64 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.19 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 18.63 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.26 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.59 | 16.17 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.31 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 18.58 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.07 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 19.11 | 17.53 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.07 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.42 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.12 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 18.93 | 17.29 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.21 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 19.21 | 17.52 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.20 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.30 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.16 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 18.26 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 18.07 | 16.33 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.23 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 20.00 | 18.20 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.11 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 20.00 | 18.16 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 18.87 | 16.94 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 18.68 | 16.66 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.04 | +0.02 |
Seed 4 of experiment cycle-003.e4-usa. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.