E4 · cycle-003.e4-zaf

South Africa, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. South Africa decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Market access opening in year 4, Global funding seizure in year 12, Hybrid coercion in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24, Core disaster in year 26.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 2.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 11.80 (+0.15); From 11.66; 11.80 to 11.81
Rank by index: 30; From 32; 30 to 30
Domains at Tier 1: 1; From 0; 0 to 1
Tier rank: 18; From 30; 18 to 19

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	11.66	11.80	11.80	11.81	higher
Rank by index	32	30	30	30	lower
Tier rank	30	18	18	19	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	1	1	higher
Score sum	833.6	846.6	847.0	847.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	833.6	846.6	847.0	847.6	higher
Resilient score	833.6	847.1 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 77 per cent, buy took 12 per cent, partner took 11 per cent of the 1,441 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks South Africa actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 11.66; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 10.77; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 11.80; 11.77 to 11.84
Skill against persistence: −0.35; group error 1.50 against 1.11 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	7.89	7.85	7.72 7.7–7.8	−0.13	right
Strategic Infrastructure	13.18	12.42	14.69 14.6–14.7	+2.27	wrong
National Security	9.54	7.71	9.04 9.0–9.1	+1.34	right
Human Capital	10.66	10.55	11.34 11.3–11.4	+0.80	wrong
Information & Influence	11.93	10.73	10.97 11.0–11.0	+0.24	right
Governance & Integrity	12.78	11.77	12.53 12.5–12.5	+0.76	right
Financial Strength	14.65	13.17	15.11 15.1–15.1	+1.94	wrong
Production & Innovation	11.71	10.88	11.67 11.6–11.7	+0.79	wrong
Trade & Investment	12.57	11.88	13.13 13.1–13.2	+1.25	wrong

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2000 · S12 × 0.3 The EU-South Africa Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement and AGOA opened significant market access for South African exports.
2008 · S02 × 0.7 The global financial crisis hit South Africa through capital-flow reversal, credit tightening and recession, though its banks remained relatively sound.
2008 · S04 × 0.5 Eskom's generation failures produced a national electricity emergency and prolonged load-shedding, an infrastructure blackout without a hostile coercion trigger.
2015 · S06 × 0.3 A severe drought caused agricultural losses and water restrictions in several provinces, raising food insecurity in poorer households.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 overwhelmed health capacity, forced harsh lockdowns and later brought the Omicron travel ban, deepening economic and social strain.
2022 · S07 × 0.4 April 2022 KwaZulu-Natal floods disabled much of Durban port and logistics infrastructure, temporarily disrupting a key national economic core.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 5% each GEAR macroeconomic stabilisation and trade liberalisation re-anchored public finance and re-entered global markets after apartheid-era isolation. (Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance, Monetary & Currency Capability, Financial Regulation & Integrity, Trade Policy & Market Access)
2001–2004 · build · 2% each Post-apartheid service delivery expanded basic health, education and social infrastructure even as HIV/AIDS began to overwhelm the public health system. (Health System Capability, Population Health, Foundational Education)
2005–2009 · build · 5% each Accelerated infrastructure investment for the 2010 FIFA World Cup and industrial policy aimed to upgrade energy, logistics and industrial capacity. (Energy Infrastructure, Transport Infrastructure, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Industrial & Sectoral Base)
2010–2014 · build · 2% each The Industrial Policy Action Plan prioritised manufacturing, export diversification and trade logistics to reduce dependence on minerals. (Industrial & Sectoral Base, Export Capability & Sophistication, Advanced Manufacturing, Trade Facilitation & Logistics)
2015–2019 · buy · 2% each Renewable energy procurement and water-resource investment responded to drought and Eskom's failing coal fleet, though generation capacity continued to deteriorate. (Energy Technologies, Energy Infrastructure, Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure, Resource Infrastructure)
2020–2026 · partner · 1% each Post-COVID digital inclusion, state-capture recovery and fiscal stabilisation sought to rebuild public administration and regulatory credibility. (Digital & AI Competence, Communications & Digital Infrastructure, Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption, Financial Stability & Crisis Management, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Scores for human capital and national security are especially uncertain because 1996 was a transition year: institutional design often outran implementation, and defence data were opaque. The deep racial and spatial inequalities of the apartheid legacy also make national averages highly misleading for social and educational capabilities. Financial and governance scores carry higher confidence because South Africa's reserve bank, treasury and constitutional institutions were comparatively well documented and internationally assessed after 1994.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-003. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

South Africa played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 11.66 to a median of 11.80 (+0.15), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.79 and 11.81 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 32 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 30. Its base income is 438 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 1,441 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Industrial & Sectoral Base (build, 161 credits, 11.2 per cent); Communications & Digital Infrastructure (build, 116 credits, 8.1 per cent); Transport Infrastructure (build, 116 credits, 8.1 per cent); Energy Infrastructure (build, 116 credits, 8.1 per cent); Monetary & Currency Capability (build, 88 credits, 6.1 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 77 per cent, buy 12 per cent, partner 11 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.066, and the most repeated action appeared in 33 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Financial Strength; rounds 6 to 10, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 11 to 15, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Governance & Integrity [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −23.5 points each); S02 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −12.9 points each); S07 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −9.7 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.79; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −1.63; Labour & Employment −1.63; Investment Attraction & Projection −1.50 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.49 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.11 points); Foundational Education to Advanced Education (+0.46 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 30 (5th to 95th percentile 30 to 30), the median count of Tier 1 domains 1 (0 to 1) and the median tier rank 18; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 847 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: production and innovation (0 to 80 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +0.965 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.965 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −1.104: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.016 and −0.007, for example 2009 build Energy Infrastructure (23 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.378 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective.

retired_words (warn): e4-zaf/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 18) ends −0.01 from it, with 5 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 11.66 the model ends at 11.80, where the 2026 ratings put it at 10.77. Group scores miss by 1.50 points on average, against 1.11 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.35); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: critical technology (−0.13); furthest above: strategic infrastructure (+2.27) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−1.104	−79.5	−0.90
No shocks	+0.965	+67.1	+2.10
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	0.00	2009 build Energy Infrastructure (23 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.011	−0.9	0.00	2009 build Transport Infrastructure (23 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.016	−1.3	0.00	2009 build Communications & Digital Infrastructure (23 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.010	−0.6	−0.90	2009 build Industrial & Sectoral Base (23 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.007	−0.6	−0.10	2008 build Energy Infrastructure (23 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.378	+26.4	+0.10	2020 S10 (-23.5 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.241	+16.1	+0.10	2008 S02 (-12.9 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.151	+10.6	+0.70	2022 S07 (-9.7 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−12.9
Hybrid coercion S04	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−7.2
Breadbasket failure S06	Shock	100 per cent	19.0	−6.9
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−9.7
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−23.5
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	4.0	+9.5

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.81	18.12 18.11 to 18.13	+5.31	5.93	147
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.24	19.32 19.23 to 19.44	+5.08	5.40	161
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.42	17.94 17.87 to 18.00	+4.52	5.09	161
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	13.73	17.37 17.35 to 17.40	+3.64	4.42	88
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.77	17.39 17.39 to 17.41	+3.62	3.99	116
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	10.05	12.46 12.45 to 12.51	+2.41	3.08	45
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	13.86 13.75 to 13.95	+2.22	2.87	45
Foundational Education	Human Capital	9.53	11.62 11.60 to 11.64	+2.09	2.63	37
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	15.64	17.71 17.70 to 17.73	+2.07	3.07	88
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	10.29	12.20 12.13 to 12.32	+1.91	1.80	31
Population Health	Human Capital	8.83	10.59 10.56 to 10.65	+1.76	2.24	37
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	16.15	17.84 17.83 to 17.84	+1.69	2.65	88
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	13.03	14.64 14.53 to 14.75	+1.61	2.61	45
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	13.73	15.09 14.97 to 15.23	+1.36	1.50	45
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.52	12.84 12.82 to 12.86	+1.32	2.13	45
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	12.40 12.36 to 12.43	+1.05	1.75	37
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.02	16.05 16.02 to 16.10	+1.03	1.70	45
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	14.36	15.17 15.14 to 15.21	+0.81	2.56	88
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	11.73	12.28 12.27 to 12.29	+0.55	1.01	31
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	15.40	15.59 15.54 to 15.63	+0.19	1.18	31
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	13.27	13.42 13.41 to 13.44	+0.15	0.91	31
Advanced Education	Human Capital	12.20	12.33 12.23 to 12.45	+0.13	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.98	10.06 9.97 to 10.11	+0.08	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.49	1.41 1.40 to 1.41	−0.08	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.62	3.46 3.46 to 3.47	−0.16	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.16	10.00 9.92 to 10.09	−0.16	0.00	0
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	11.77	11.50 11.50 to 11.50	−0.27	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	12.82	12.54 12.51 to 12.56	−0.28	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	14.79	14.50 14.45 to 14.54	−0.29	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	5.24	4.95 4.94 to 4.95	−0.29	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	7.03 6.99 to 7.08	−0.31	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.65	16.31 16.25 to 16.40	−0.34	0.00	0
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.28	10.90 10.87 to 10.92	−0.38	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	11.80	11.41 11.37 to 11.44	−0.39	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	7.33	6.93 6.91 to 6.95	−0.40	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	6.37	5.97 5.95 to 5.98	−0.40	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	13.38	12.98 12.97 to 12.98	−0.40	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	13.58	13.18 13.17 to 13.18	−0.40	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.06	12.66 12.53 to 12.79	−0.40	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	7.39	6.98 6.96 to 7.02	−0.41	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	10.77	10.36 10.35 to 10.37	−0.41	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.33	10.88 10.85 to 10.92	−0.45	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	7.49	7.04 7.02 to 7.05	−0.45	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.73	12.27 12.21 to 12.32	−0.46	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	11.23	10.76 10.66 to 10.88	−0.47	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	8.18	7.69 7.68 to 7.70	−0.49	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	11.28	10.76 10.74 to 10.77	−0.52	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	8.46	7.93 7.91 to 7.94	−0.53	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	11.81	11.28 11.20 to 11.34	−0.53	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	12.00	11.43 11.42 to 11.44	−0.57	0.00	0
Air Power	National Security	11.30	10.73 10.72 to 10.74	−0.57	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	11.30	10.68 10.66 to 10.70	−0.62	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	9.79	9.11 9.10 to 9.11	−0.68	0.00	0
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	12.27	11.57 11.55 to 11.60	−0.70	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	10.79	10.07 10.02 to 10.11	−0.72	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	10.87 10.86 to 10.89	−0.72	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	12.42	11.68 11.66 to 11.69	−0.74	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	12.53	11.77 11.75 to 11.78	−0.76	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	9.98	9.19 9.19 to 9.19	−0.79	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.78	9.98 9.94 to 10.00	−0.80	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	11.55	10.72 10.68 to 10.76	−0.83	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	10.60	9.75 9.72 to 9.77	−0.85	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	11.70	10.83 10.82 to 10.84	−0.87	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.98	9.06 9.04 to 9.07	−0.92	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	11.35	10.41 10.38 to 10.44	−0.94	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.61	13.65 13.62 to 13.67	−0.96	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.25	10.26 10.21 to 10.30	−0.99	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.95	10.92 10.91 to 10.94	−1.03	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.60	11.52 11.49 to 11.54	−1.08	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	12.36	11.14 11.13 to 11.17	−1.22	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	15.57	14.31 14.30 to 14.31	−1.26	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	11.92	10.56 10.55 to 10.57	−1.36	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	10.37	8.86 8.85 to 8.89	−1.51	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 2.3e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 1.402 to 19.982
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.8e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.18 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 32; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.066; most funded group economic.production_and_innovation.industrial_and_sectoral_base
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 33% of rounds
passregression_index_p50index_p50 moved 1.1% since cycle-002 (11.67 to 11.80); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)
passregression_score_sum_p50score_sum_p50 moved 1.2% since cycle-002 (837.31 to 847.03); versions changed (0.1.0 to 0.1.1, graph 0.2.0 to 0.2.0)

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-003.e4-zaf. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: South Africa (ZAF)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Market access opening in year 4, Global funding seizure in year 12, Hybrid coercion in year 12, Breadbasket failure in year 19, Severe pandemic in year 24, Core disaster in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 437.7 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.2.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-003), cycle 3 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 7.1 seconds in all; 1783 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.