Simulation 26
South Africa, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 26: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.66 at the 1996 position, 11.80 in 2026; 123 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 26
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 8 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.80 (+0.15)
- From 11.66
- Rank by index
- 30
- From 32
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 11.68 +0.023 | |
| 1998 |
| 11.72 +0.047 | |
| 1999 |
| 11.79 +0.060 | |
| 2000 |
| Market access opening | 11.89 +0.102 |
| 2001 |
| 11.97 +0.086 | |
| 2002 |
| 12.04 +0.071 | |
| 2003 |
| 12.07 +0.021 | |
| 2004 |
| 12.09 +0.024 | |
| 2005 |
| 12.13 +0.036 | |
| 2006 |
| 12.17 +0.044 | |
| 2007 |
| 12.22 +0.052 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizureHybrid coercion | 11.98 −0.239 |
| 2009 |
| 12.03 +0.046 | |
| 2010 |
| 12.07 +0.045 | |
| 2011 |
| 12.12 +0.046 | |
| 2012 |
| 12.16 +0.037 | |
| 2013 |
| 12.19 +0.030 | |
| 2014 |
| 12.22 +0.030 | |
| 2015 |
| Breadbasket failure | 12.15 −0.068 |
| 2016 |
| 12.18 +0.025 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.20 +0.020 | |
| 2018 |
| 12.21 +0.018 | |
| 2019 |
| 12.23 +0.018 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 11.90 −0.326 |
| 2021 |
| 11.91 +0.007 | |
| 2022 |
| Core disaster | 11.78 −0.131 |
| 2023 |
| 11.79 +0.006 | |
| 2024 |
| 11.79 +0.004 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.80 +0.005 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.80 +0.008 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.104 | −79.5 | −0.90 |
| No shocks | +0.965 | +67.1 | +2.10 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.010 | −0.6 | −0.90 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | −0.10 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.378 | +26.4 | +0.10 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.241 | +16.1 | +0.10 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.151 | +10.6 | +0.70 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.81 | 18.11 | +5.30 | +5.93 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.05 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.24 | 19.25 | +5.01 | +5.41 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.41 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.42 | 17.91 | +4.49 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.09 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.73 | 17.37 | +3.64 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.10 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.77 | 17.38 | +3.61 | +4.01 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.05 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.05 | 12.46 | +2.41 | +3.07 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.10 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.64 | 13.95 | +2.31 | +2.85 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.40 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 9.53 | 11.62 | +2.09 | +2.63 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.02 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 15.64 | 17.72 | +2.08 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.05 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.29 | 12.13 | +1.84 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.43 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 8.83 | 10.66 | +1.83 | +2.24 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.24 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 16.15 | 17.84 | +1.69 | +2.65 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 14.72 | +1.69 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.57 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.52 | 12.83 | +1.31 | +2.14 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.73 | 14.97 | +1.24 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.25 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.02 | 16.08 | +1.06 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.10 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.35 | 12.40 | +1.05 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.07 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 15.19 | +0.83 | +2.56 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.17 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 11.73 | 12.29 | +0.56 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.03 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 12.20 | 12.42 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.59 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 15.40 | 15.61 | +0.21 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.12 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.27 | 13.43 | +0.16 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.04 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.98 | 10.07 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.34 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.49 | 1.41 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | 0.00 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.62 | 3.46 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.16 | 9.96 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.27 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.82 | 12.57 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.79 | 14.54 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.13 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 11.77 | 11.50 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.95 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 7.00 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.09 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.65 | 16.31 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.29 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 11.45 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.15 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.28 | 10.88 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.10 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.39 | 6.99 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 13.38 | 12.98 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 13.58 | 13.18 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.77 | 10.36 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 7.33 | 6.91 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | 0.00 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 6.37 | 5.95 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.08 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 7.49 | 7.05 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 13.06 | 12.62 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.42 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 10.88 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.11 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.18 | 7.69 | −0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.02 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.81 | 11.30 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.33 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.21 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.13 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.46 | 7.94 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 11.28 | 10.74 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.03 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.45 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | −0.05 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.23 | 10.67 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.28 |
| Air Power | National Security | 11.30 | 10.73 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.06 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 11.30 | 10.69 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.05 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 9.79 | 9.10 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 10.88 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 11.56 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.06 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.79 | 10.08 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.19 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.42 | 11.66 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.53 | 11.76 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.78 | 10.00 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.98 | 9.19 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.55 | 10.76 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.25 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.60 | 9.78 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.70 | 10.84 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.98 | 9.07 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.06 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.61 | 13.69 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.04 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.35 | 10.39 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.11 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.95 | 10.92 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.08 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 10.22 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.08 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.60 | 11.51 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.06 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.36 | 11.15 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.57 | 14.30 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.02 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.92 | 10.55 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 8.85 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.04 |
Seed 26 of experiment cycle-003.e4-zaf. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.