Simulation 4
Zimbabwe, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 7.22 at the 1996 position, 4.50 in 2026; 138 actions over 30 rounds and 12 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 2 (median simulation), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 4.50 (−2.72)
- From 7.22
- Rank by index
- 132
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 12 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 6.90 −0.315 |
| 1998 |
| Regional war spillover | 6.72 −0.180 |
| 1999 |
| 6.73 +0.009 | |
| 2000 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 6.68 −0.047 |
| 2001 |
| 6.63 −0.055 | |
| 2002 |
| Breadbasket failure | 6.14 −0.486 |
| 2003 |
| 6.13 −0.006 | |
| 2004 |
| Chronic disease advance | 6.15 +0.016 |
| 2005 |
| 6.17 +0.021 | |
| 2006 |
| 6.20 +0.024 | |
| 2007 |
| 6.22 +0.026 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizureLegitimacy ruptureSevere pandemic | 5.37 −0.855 |
| 2009 |
| 5.39 +0.023 | |
| 2010 |
| 5.42 +0.027 | |
| 2011 |
| 5.44 +0.024 | |
| 2012 |
| 5.47 +0.024 | |
| 2013 |
| 5.49 +0.027 | |
| 2014 |
| 5.52 +0.029 | |
| 2015 |
| 5.54 +0.020 | |
| 2016 |
| 5.57 +0.023 | |
| 2017 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 5.42 −0.150 |
| 2018 |
| 5.44 +0.027 | |
| 2019 |
| Core disasterBreadbasket failure | 5.01 −0.435 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 4.84 −0.165 |
| 2021 |
| 4.84 −0.003 | |
| 2022 |
| 4.83 −0.012 | |
| 2023 |
| 4.82 −0.010 | |
| 2024 |
| Breadbasket failure | 4.51 −0.307 |
| 2025 |
| 4.50 −0.005 | |
| 2026 |
| 4.50 −0.007 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| National Security | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Information & Influence | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 19 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 33 |
| Production & Innovation | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.620 | −43.4 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +3.736 | +260.3 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.006 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.009 | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.009 | +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.006 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.394 | +28.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.436 | +29.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.340 | +24.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land Power | National Security | 7.73 | 8.35 | +0.62 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.36 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 6.78 | 6.95 | +0.17 | +2.71 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.14 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.28 | 0.93 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.05 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.55 | 1.11 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 7.58 | 7.14 | −0.44 | +1.66 | 0.00 | −2.05 | −0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.42 | 9.96 | −0.46 | +5.48 | 0.00 | −5.22 | −0.72 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 2.18 | 1.58 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.06 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 1.89 | 1.23 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.72 | 1.88 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.15 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.64 | 7.64 | −1.00 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −3.08 | −0.11 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.77 | 6.75 | −1.02 | +3.18 | 0.00 | −3.84 | −0.36 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.39 | 2.32 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.19 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 3.62 | 2.39 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.21 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 3.30 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 4.38 | 3.02 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.09 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.73 | 2.26 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.14 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.08 | 6.60 | −1.48 | +2.60 | 0.00 | −3.67 | −0.41 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 4.51 | 2.98 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.15 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.67 | 3.08 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.29 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.18 | 3.56 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.24 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.49 | 2.73 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | −0.32 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 6.72 | 4.90 | −1.82 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −4.49 | −0.36 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.38 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.17 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.11 | 4.24 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.18 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 6.69 | 4.62 | −2.07 | +4.07 | 0.00 | −5.82 | −0.32 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.14 | 4.05 | −2.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.25 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 8.25 | 6.15 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.10 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 6.94 | 4.80 | −2.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +0.05 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.62 | 2.46 | −2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.39 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 7.40 | 5.22 | −2.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.24 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.54 | 6.26 | −2.28 | +1.92 | 0.00 | −3.89 | −0.31 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.72 | 5.44 | −2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.44 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 7.73 | 5.37 | −2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | +0.06 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.27 | 6.81 | −2.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.21 | −0.25 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 8.52 | 6.03 | −2.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.02 | −0.47 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 9.40 | 6.84 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | −0.32 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 8.65 | 6.07 | −2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.31 | −0.27 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 6.39 | 3.75 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.13 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 5.27 | 2.58 | −2.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.28 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.21 | 3.25 | −2.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.44 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.66 | 4.63 | −3.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.01 | −0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 10.05 | 6.98 | −3.07 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −4.90 | −0.20 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.51 | 5.42 | −3.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.61 | −0.48 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 6.79 | 3.69 | −3.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.35 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 8.69 | 5.43 | −3.26 | +2.55 | 0.00 | −5.59 | −0.21 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.37 | 7.07 | −3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.18 | −0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 9.55 | 6.25 | −3.30 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −4.48 | −0.76 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 7.92 | 4.60 | −3.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.05 | −0.28 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 7.38 | 4.01 | −3.37 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −3.96 | −0.35 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.97 | 7.51 | −3.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.63 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 6.51 | 3.03 | −3.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.25 | −0.22 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.58 | 5.09 | −3.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.63 | −0.87 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 5.35 | −3.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.26 | −0.28 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 8.48 | 4.89 | −3.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.97 | −0.62 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 9.75 | 6.15 | −3.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.98 | −0.62 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 9.46 | 5.82 | −3.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.04 | −0.60 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.20 | 4.48 | −3.72 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −3.81 | −0.30 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.36 | 3.40 | −3.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.56 | −0.40 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.94 | 5.87 | −4.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.50 | −0.57 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 7.18 | 3.07 | −4.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.56 | −0.54 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 8.21 | 4.05 | −4.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.84 | −0.32 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.60 | 6.40 | −4.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.71 | −0.49 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.12 | 3.89 | −4.23 | +3.55 | 0.00 | −7.23 | −0.55 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 8.22 | 3.73 | −4.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.00 | −0.49 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 7.71 | 3.16 | −4.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.13 | −0.42 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 8.54 | 3.97 | −4.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.07 | −0.50 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.66 | 4.05 | −4.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.15 | −0.46 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 8.13 | 3.50 | −4.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.26 | −0.36 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.35 | 4.58 | −4.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.10 | −0.66 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 3.91 | −4.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.73 | −0.11 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.03 | 5.17 | −4.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.73 | −1.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.02 | 3.11 | −6.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −6.23 | −0.68 |
Seed 4 of experiment cycle-003.e4-zwe. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.