Round 2 · simulation 2 · mcts-dev.dev-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2028

Round 2 of 4 in simulation 2 of Estonia, greedy, 4 years: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.246 to 11.34.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2028 (the end of 2027) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.34 (−0.246)
In: 11.59
Rank by index
34
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
44
In: 24
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.627.05+0.4287 → 6
Strategic Infrastructure10.8610.43−0.4335
National Security7.547.37−0.1756
Human Capital14.5614.28−0.2733
Information & Influence10.7910.36−0.4266
Governance & Integrity15.4615.25−0.2123 → 4
Financial Strength13.0812.61−0.4679
Production & Innovation12.8112.63−0.1825
Trade & Investment12.6012.13−0.4696 → 8

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2028: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 347, plus 24 carried in. Maintenance 240. Spent 87 on actions (buy 69, partner 17). 44 carried over.

  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing17 credits for 1.61 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space Technologies by 12 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies17 credits for 1.43 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Artificial Intelligence by 11 per cent
  • BuyArtificial Intelligence17 credits for 1.64 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 2 per cent
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity17 credits for 1.11 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Advanced Materials & Manufacturing by 0 per cent
  • BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing17 credits for 1.77 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Sensing, Timing & Navigation by 0 per cent
  • Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −23.7 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 7 to 6; Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 4; Trade & Investment Tier 6 to 8.

The groups that moved most in 2028, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing+1.57+1.770.00−0.190.00
Artificial Intelligence+1.44+1.640.00−0.200.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+1.38+1.610.00−0.240.00
Space Technologies+1.24+1.450.00−0.200.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−0.820.000.00−0.820.00
Economic Output & Productivity+0.76+1.110.00−0.350.00