Round 5 · simulation 44 · mcts-m2.m2-bra-greedy-marginal

Round 2031

Round 5 of 20 in simulation 44 of Brazil, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.164 to 12.16.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2031 (the end of 2030) and as it left it.

Capability index
12.16 (+0.164)
In: 12.00
Rank by index
28
In: 29
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
76
In: 45
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology9.199.44+0.2456
Strategic Infrastructure13.8313.85+0.0253
National Security9.429.42+0.0035
Human Capital13.6214.29+0.6673 → 2
Information & Influence12.2312.54+0.3095
Governance & Integrity12.1612.21+0.0519
Financial Strength13.1713.29+0.1149
Production & Innovation12.1612.20+0.0386
Trade & Investment12.2012.22+0.0217

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2031: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 411, plus 45 carried in. Maintenance 284. Spent 97 on actions (build 39, buy 39, partner 19). 76 carried over.

  • BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.47 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies by 0 per cent
  • BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies19 credits for 1.92 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technical & Vocational Skills by 1 per cent
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.51 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 0 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance19 credits for 1.73 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 2 per cent
  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance19 credits for 0.79 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 3 per cent

Earlier events still landing: +2.2 points this round.

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 3 to 2.

The groups that moved most in 2031, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies+1.97+1.920.00+0.040.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.76+1.730.00+0.020.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.75+1.700.00+0.040.00
Digital & AI Competence+1.71+1.670.00+0.040.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+1.54+1.500.00+0.040.00
Foundational Education+0.77+0.730.00+0.040.00