Simulation 44
Brazil, greedy, 20 years, seed 44: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 12.76 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 44
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.76 (+1.07)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 24
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.72 +0.031 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.77 +0.053 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.87 +0.098 | |
| 2030 |
| Chronic disease advance | 12.00 +0.126 |
| 2031 |
| 12.16 +0.164 | |
| 2032 |
| AI labour shock | 12.17 +0.009 |
| 2033 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 12.15 −0.024 |
| 2034 |
| 12.09 −0.054 | |
| 2035 |
| 12.15 +0.055 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.25 +0.098 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.37 +0.128 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.52 +0.142 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.64 +0.125 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.74 +0.104 | |
| 2041 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.63 −0.117 |
| 2042 |
| Hybrid coercion | 12.56 −0.068 |
| 2043 |
| 12.66 +0.102 | |
| 2044 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.49 −0.172 |
| 2045 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 12.60 +0.109 |
| 2046 |
| 12.76 +0.165 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.360 | −169.3 | −1.60 |
| No shocks | +0.448 | +32.6 | −0.60 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.028 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.017 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.313 | +21.9 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.191 | +14.0 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.128 | +9.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 18.70 | +8.20 | +8.36 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.34 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 17.02 | +7.69 | +8.21 | 0.00 | −1.62 | +1.10 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 20.00 | +7.50 | +8.52 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.34 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 17.71 | +7.04 | +7.51 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 11.77 | +6.44 | +7.81 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.05 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 17.37 | +5.87 | +6.62 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.67 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 17.66 | +5.66 | +7.27 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.08 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 16.90 | +5.65 | +5.86 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.06 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 14.91 | +5.51 | +6.66 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.09 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 15.13 | +5.13 | +6.25 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.24 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 16.74 | +5.07 | +5.07 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.41 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 17.01 | +4.68 | +7.14 | 0.00 | −2.45 | −0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 15.60 | +3.60 | +5.28 | 0.00 | −2.11 | +0.43 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 16.58 | +3.58 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.68 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.79 | +3.46 | +4.72 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.64 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 17.46 | +3.21 | +5.09 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.05 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.81 | +3.14 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.24 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 14.86 | +2.86 | +4.57 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.06 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 11.08 | +2.83 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.45 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 15.31 | +2.81 | +4.57 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +0.42 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 14.76 | +2.76 | +4.80 | 0.00 | −2.21 | +0.17 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 12.31 | +2.51 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.36 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.16 | +2.49 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.06 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 11.20 | +2.40 | +3.38 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 12.71 | +1.38 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −2.01 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 11.20 | +0.77 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.30 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.34 | +0.54 | +1.62 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.14 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.88 | +0.45 | +1.28 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.77 | +0.44 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.06 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 9.24 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.65 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.89 | −0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.26 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.59 | −0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.51 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.43 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.16 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 12.46 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.36 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.72 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.12 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 11.01 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.04 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.39 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.66 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 10.66 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +1.00 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 12.24 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.46 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.62 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.03 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.10 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 11.76 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.24 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.93 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.23 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 5.87 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.22 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 5.75 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | +0.51 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 11.98 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.22 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.79 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.10 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 12.05 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 10.86 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.35 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 13.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.13 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.27 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.51 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.07 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.92 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | 0.00 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 11.45 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.80 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.09 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 13.08 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.07 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.66 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | +0.23 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 12.24 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.10 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 13.26 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.37 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.84 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.07 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.55 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.40 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.05 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 9.99 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.18 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 12.96 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.07 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 12.42 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | −0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 11.40 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 12.39 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | +0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 11.69 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.19 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 8.85 | −2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | +0.33 |
Seed 44 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-bra-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.