Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 10 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.177 to 11.46.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.46 (−0.178)
- In: 11.63
- Rank by index
- 34
- In: 31
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 50
- In: 38
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8.95 | 8.79 | −0.154 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.56 | 13.09 | −0.469 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.37 | 8.80 | −0.572 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 12.63 | 13.13 | +0.494 | 4 → 3 |
| Information & Influence | 11.80 | 11.40 | −0.393 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 11.68 | −0.301 | 9 → 10 |
| Financial Strength | 12.85 | 12.85 | −0.002 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 11.68 | 11.72 | +0.048 | 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 11.89 | 11.65 | −0.247 | 8 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 377, plus 38 carried in. Maintenance 271. Spent 94 on actions (build 76, buy 19). 50 carried over.
- BuildStrategic Strike & Missile Defence19 credits for 0.82 levelsmctsahead of Digital & AI Competence by 0 per cent
- BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.56 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.58 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion19 credits for 1.80 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.67 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −21.8 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 4 to 3; Governance & Integrity Tier 9 to 10.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | +1.59 | +1.80 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +1.48 | +1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +1.38 | +1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +1.36 | +1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | 0.00 |