Round 2038
Round 12 of 20 in simulation 27 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.178 to 13.08.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2038 (the end of 2037) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 13.08 (+0.179)
- In: 12.90
- Rank by index
- 22
- In: 22
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 1
- Credits carried
- 147
- In: 126
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 10.26 | 10.67 | +0.409 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 14.02 | 14.09 | +0.068 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.58 | 9.62 | +0.045 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 15.88 | 16.06 | +0.172 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 13.38 | 13.57 | +0.189 | 4 → 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12.23 | 12.27 | +0.038 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 13.64 | 13.72 | +0.085 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.97 | 13.05 | +0.073 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 14.13 | 14.65 | +0.526 | 5 → 2 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2038: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 462, plus 126 carried in. Maintenance 327. Spent 113 on actions (build 23, buy 45, partner 45). 147 carried over.
- PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance23 credits for 0.76 levelsmctsahead of Research Talent & Knowledge Creation by 0 per cent
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing23 credits for 1.57 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyRobotics & Autonomous Systems23 credits for 1.80 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication23 credits for 1.61 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildFoundational Education23 credits for 1.15 levelsmcts_fill
Earlier events still landing: +1.8 points this round.
Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 4 to 3; Trade & Investment Tier 5 to 2.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | +1.90 | +1.80 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.07 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | +1.61 | +1.57 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +0.97 | +0.91 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | +0.94 | +0.92 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | +0.92 | +0.87 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | +0.84 | +0.81 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 |