Round 4 · simulation 45 · mcts-m2.m2-bra-mcts-score-sum

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 45 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.134 to 11.98.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.98 (+0.134)
In: 11.85
Rank by index
29
In: 30
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
50
In: 35
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology9.139.14+0.0066
Strategic Infrastructure13.8013.800.0003
National Security9.469.48+0.0215
Human Capital12.8013.30+0.5014 → 3
Information & Influence12.0412.21+0.1745
Governance & Integrity12.1112.110.0009
Financial Strength13.1313.14+0.0129
Production & Innovation11.9512.44+0.4858 → 6
Trade & Investment12.1912.19+0.0057

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 391, plus 35 carried in. Maintenance 280. Spent 97 on actions (build 58, buy 39). 50 carried over.

  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 1.05 levelsmcts
  • BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.58 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.61 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion19 credits for 1.82 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.70 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 4 to 3; Production & Innovation Tier 8 to 6.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Technology Adoption & Diffusion+1.82+1.820.000.000.00
Economic Output & Productivity+1.54+1.540.000.000.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+1.49+1.490.000.000.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.39+1.390.000.000.00
Digital & AI Competence+1.37+1.370.000.000.00
Alliances & Security Cooperation+1.04+1.040.000.000.00