Round 3 · simulation 13 · mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2029

Round 3 of 20 in simulation 13 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.330 to 11.32.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.32 (−0.330)
In: 11.65
Rank by index
34
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
87
In: 52
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.746.70−0.0467 → 6
Strategic Infrastructure10.8610.16−0.7015
National Security7.546.72−0.8176
Human Capital14.6714.81+0.1463
Information & Influence10.7910.23−0.5556
Governance & Integrity15.4615.05−0.4113 → 5
Financial Strength13.1113.14+0.0329 → 8
Production & Innovation13.1312.84−0.2915
Trade & Investment12.6012.27−0.3286 → 8

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2029: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 367, plus 52 carried in. Maintenance 243. Spent 89 on actions (build 36, buy 36, partner 18). 87 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills18 credits for 1.63 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 5 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing18 credits for 1.49 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space Technologies by 2 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies18 credits for 1.36 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 3 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance18 credits for 1.68 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 0 per cent
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling18 credits for 1.58 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure by 1 per cent
  • Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −32.8 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 7 to 6; Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 5; Financial Strength Tier 9 to 8; Trade & Investment Tier 6 to 8.

The groups that moved most in 2029, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Maritime Power−1.420.000.00−1.420.00
Intelligence & Assessment−1.300.000.00−1.300.00
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations−1.290.000.00−1.290.00
Information Environment & Strategic Communication−1.250.000.00−1.250.00
Alliances & Security Cooperation−1.220.000.00−1.220.00
Energy Infrastructure−1.200.000.00−1.200.00