Simulation 13
Estonia, greedy, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 11.49 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 21 (median simulation), 20 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.49 (+0.00)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 33
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.57 +0.084 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.65 +0.084 | |
| 2029 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.32 −0.330 |
| 2030 |
| 11.43 +0.103 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.57 +0.138 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.70 +0.128 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.59 −0.102 |
| 2034 |
| 11.69 +0.095 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break | 11.15 −0.540 |
| 2036 |
| 11.25 +0.101 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.36 +0.110 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.47 +0.111 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.25 −0.220 |
| 2040 |
| 11.37 +0.116 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.44 +0.076 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.54 +0.093 | |
| 2043 |
| 11.63 +0.095 | |
| 2044 |
| AI labour shock | 11.58 −0.049 |
| 2045 |
| 11.53 −0.053 | |
| 2046 |
| 11.49 −0.039 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.372 | −175.3 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.020 | +74.6 | +1.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.020 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.579 | +42.3 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.447 | +32.0 | +0.25 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.309 | +22.7 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 12.59 | +10.09 | +12.79 | 0.00 | −2.68 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 10.44 | +7.77 | +9.79 | 0.00 | −2.18 | +0.17 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 14.72 | +6.39 | +6.18 | 0.00 | −2.60 | +2.81 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 18.96 | +5.96 | +6.54 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.05 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 10.65 | +5.51 | +7.84 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 10.21 | +5.41 | +7.96 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 12.89 | +5.39 | +8.04 | 0.00 | −2.88 | +0.22 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 9.85 | +5.25 | +6.62 | 0.00 | −2.24 | +0.88 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 14.38 | +4.38 | +6.97 | 0.00 | −2.52 | −0.07 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 9.93 | +4.26 | +5.87 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.30 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 16.87 | +3.37 | +5.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | +0.52 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 14.06 | +3.26 | +6.13 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.03 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 12.73 | +2.73 | +5.70 | 0.00 | −3.38 | +0.42 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 16.20 | +2.70 | +5.33 | 0.00 | −2.98 | +0.36 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 10.05 | +2.65 | +4.64 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 10.60 | +2.20 | +4.79 | 0.00 | −2.53 | −0.07 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.47 | +2.14 | +3.02 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 13.08 | +1.75 | +4.48 | 0.00 | −2.83 | +0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 9.75 | +1.50 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.37 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 15.45 | +0.95 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.14 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.39 | +0.72 | +3.07 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.16 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 10.45 | +0.65 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −2.07 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.13 | +0.46 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −2.16 | +1.16 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 4.33 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +2.20 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 12.82 | +0.15 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.14 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.14 | +0.14 | +2.83 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.25 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.01 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.45 | −0.05 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −1.85 | +0.30 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.41 | −0.59 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −2.12 | +0.09 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 5.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +1.13 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.63 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.24 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 12.78 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.05 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.06 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.15 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.02 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.17 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 13.30 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 8.94 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.57 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 7.78 | −1.10 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −2.52 | +0.25 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.34 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.25 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.80 | −1.20 | +2.94 | 0.00 | −4.30 | +0.15 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 14.94 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.08 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.19 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 12.80 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.12 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | +0.07 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 14.37 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.08 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 10.85 | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 12.34 | −1.66 | +1.45 | 0.00 | −2.93 | −0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 7.56 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 6.94 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 13.49 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.12 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 10.90 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 10.22 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.18 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 12.38 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.24 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 11.79 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.54 | +0.58 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 3.52 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | −0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 12.69 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.17 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 11.28 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.18 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 9.45 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.25 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 12.70 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.33 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 9.73 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.22 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 9.41 | −2.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.86 | −0.23 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 11.80 | −2.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.43 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 10.97 | −2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.27 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 12.57 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.36 | +0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 3.62 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.52 | +0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 9.11 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 11.86 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | −0.12 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.59 | −2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.06 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 9.23 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.91 | +0.47 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 12.27 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.19 | +0.71 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 14.89 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.16 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 9.31 | −2.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | +0.21 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 10.72 | −2.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.09 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 11.03 | −2.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.18 |
Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.