Round 9 · simulation 13 · mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2035

Round 9 of 20 in simulation 13 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture and Cryptographic trust break, and the index −0.540 to 11.15.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2035 (the end of 2034) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.15 (−0.540)
In: 11.69
Rank by index
35
In: 31
Domains at Tier 1
1
In: 1
Credits carried
271
In: 234
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology8.418.04−0.3636 → 5
Strategic Infrastructure10.119.72−0.3965
National Security6.755.82−0.9296 → 7
Human Capital15.2415.16−0.0801
Information & Influence11.4910.52−0.9645 → 6
Governance & Integrity14.8714.32−0.5505 → 6
Financial Strength12.7811.80−0.9859 → 10
Production & Innovation12.8412.44−0.4025
Trade & Investment12.7012.51−0.1886 → 5

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2035: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 377, plus 234 carried in. Maintenance 248. Spent 92 on actions (buy 74, partner 18). 271 carried over.

  • BuySpace, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure18 credits for 1.16 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Sensing, Timing & Navigation by 0 per cent
  • BuySensing, Timing & Navigation18 credits for 1.72 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Artificial Intelligence by 0 per cent
  • BuyArtificial Intelligence18 credits for 1.57 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Biotechnology & Health Technologies by 1 per cent
  • BuyBiotechnology & Health Technologies18 credits for 1.67 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 0 per cent
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication18 credits for 1.48 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Investment Attraction & Projection by 0 per cent
  • Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −14.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
  • Shock: Cryptographic trust break S09. −34.7 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 6 to 5; National Security Tier 6 to 7; Information & Influence Tier 5 to 6; Governance & Integrity Tier 5 to 6; Financial Strength Tier 9 to 10; Trade & Investment Tier 6 to 5.

The groups that moved most in 2035, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Information Environment & Strategic Communication−1.660.000.00−1.67+0.01
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks−1.470.000.00−1.49+0.01
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations−1.460.000.00−1.460.00
Intelligence & Assessment−1.450.000.00−1.47+0.02
Financial Stability & Crisis Management−1.390.000.00−1.390.00
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies−1.360.000.00−1.360.00