Round 3 · simulation 20 · mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2029

Round 3 of 20 in simulation 20 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Outbreak defence succeeds, and the index +0.454 to 12.11.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.

Capability index
12.11 (+0.454)
In: 11.66
Rank by index
28
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
1
In: 0
Credits carried
88
In: 52
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.747.48+0.7407 → 6
Strategic Infrastructure10.8611.26+0.3935 → 4
National Security7.547.72+0.1796
Human Capital14.6715.21+0.5433 → 2
Information & Influence10.7911.50+0.7106 → 5
Governance & Integrity15.4615.95+0.4923 → 1
Financial Strength13.1213.34+0.2249 → 8
Production & Innovation13.1313.50+0.3735 → 4
Trade & Investment12.6013.03+0.4286

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2029: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 368, plus 52 carried in. Maintenance 243. Spent 89 on actions (build 36, buy 36, partner 18). 88 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills18 credits for 1.63 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 5 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing18 credits for 1.49 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space Technologies by 2 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies18 credits for 1.36 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 3 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance18 credits for 1.68 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 0 per cent
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling18 credits for 1.58 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure by 1 per cent
  • Upside event: Outbreak defence succeeds S20. +26.1 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 7 to 6; Strategic Infrastructure Tier 5 to 4; Human Capital Tier 3 to 2; Information & Influence Tier 6 to 5; Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 1; Financial Strength Tier 9 to 8; Production & Innovation Tier 5 to 4.

The groups that moved most in 2029, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+2.09+1.680.00+0.36+0.06
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+1.84+1.490.00+0.360.00
Space Technologies+1.75+1.390.00+0.360.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+1.35+1.000.00+0.360.00
Artificial Intelligence+0.910.000.00+0.36+0.55
National Resilience & Crisis Management+0.720.000.00+0.71+0.01