Round 2 · simulation 21 · mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2028

Round 2 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Global funding seizure, and the index −0.240 to 11.37.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2028 (the end of 2027) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.37 (−0.240)
In: 11.61
Rank by index
34
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
77
In: 24
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.316.60+0.2887
Strategic Infrastructure10.8910.68−0.2155
National Security7.547.540.0006
Human Capital14.6514.62−0.0353
Information & Influence10.8110.59−0.2216
Governance & Integrity15.5315.33−0.1913 → 4
Financial Strength13.1412.37−0.7739
Production & Innovation12.9912.59−0.4105
Trade & Investment12.6212.02−0.6026 → 8

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2028: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 380, plus 24 carried in. Maintenance 240. Spent 87 on actions (build 17, buy 52, partner 17). 77 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills17 credits for 1.66 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 1 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing17 credits for 1.61 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space Technologies by 5 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies17 credits for 1.42 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Artificial Intelligence by 4 per cent
  • BuyArtificial Intelligence17 credits for 1.88 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 3 per cent
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity17 credits for 1.03 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 2 per cent
  • Shock: Global funding seizure S02. −24.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 4; Trade & Investment Tier 6 to 8.

The groups that moved most in 2028, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Artificial Intelligence+1.68+1.880.00−0.200.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+1.34+1.610.00−0.270.00
Space Technologies+1.22+1.450.00−0.220.00
Investment Attraction & Projection−1.060.000.00−1.10+0.04
Financial System Depth & Access−0.920.000.00−0.920.00
Financial Stability & Crisis Management−0.890.000.00−0.890.00