Simulation 21
Estonia, greedy, 20 years, seed 21: median simulation of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 12.81 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 20 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.81 (+1.32)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 23
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| Chronic disease advance | 11.61 +0.123 |
| 2028 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.37 −0.240 |
| 2029 |
| 11.51 +0.143 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.64 +0.123 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.83 +0.189 | |
| 2032 |
| AI labour shock | 11.81 −0.019 |
| 2033 |
| 11.79 −0.012 | |
| 2034 |
| 11.83 +0.034 | |
| 2035 |
| 11.93 +0.099 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.04 +0.109 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.15 +0.110 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.26 +0.114 | |
| 2039 |
| Automated discovery step | 12.48 +0.222 |
| 2040 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 12.39 −0.096 |
| 2041 |
| 12.58 +0.193 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.68 +0.100 | |
| 2043 |
| 12.80 +0.123 | |
| 2044 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.54 −0.258 |
| 2045 |
| Automated discovery step | 12.73 +0.182 |
| 2046 |
| AI labour shock | 12.81 +0.084 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.372 | −175.3 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.020 | +74.6 | +1.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.020 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.017 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.579 | +42.3 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.447 | +32.0 | +0.25 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.309 | +22.7 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 13.57 | +11.07 | +11.60 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 11.06 | +8.39 | +8.91 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.20 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 15.97 | +7.64 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +3.77 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 11.65 | +7.05 | +6.47 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +1.29 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 11.83 | +7.03 | +7.81 | 0.00 | −0.79 | 0.00 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 19.68 | +6.68 | +6.62 | 0.00 | +0.10 | −0.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 14.18 | +6.68 | +7.88 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 11.29 | +6.15 | +6.38 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 15.58 | +5.58 | +7.87 | 0.00 | −2.34 | +0.05 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 10.40 | +4.73 | +4.73 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.43 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 17.97 | +4.47 | +5.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.51 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 18.78 | +4.45 | +4.74 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 15.77 | +4.44 | +7.07 | 0.00 | −2.81 | +0.17 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 14.25 | +4.25 | +5.05 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.32 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 14.75 | +3.95 | +4.45 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 17.40 | +3.90 | +4.93 | 0.00 | −1.36 | +0.33 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 11.03 | +3.63 | +3.42 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 11.91 | +3.51 | +4.63 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.02 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.50 | +2.83 | +4.32 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.10 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 18.94 | +2.44 | +2.68 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.06 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.10 | +2.43 | +3.01 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.80 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 10.53 | +2.28 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.70 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 6.22 | +2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +2.17 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 16.53 | +2.03 | +2.86 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.19 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.78 | +1.78 | +2.85 | 0.00 | −1.34 | +0.28 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 14.19 | +1.52 | +1.01 | 0.00 | +0.46 | +0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 7.46 | +1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +1.40 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 11.21 | +1.41 | +2.77 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.41 | +1.41 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 15.03 | +0.70 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.03 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 12.32 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.55 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 15.35 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.97 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.42 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.44 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.70 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 12.41 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.31 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 6.36 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.30 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.65 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.32 | −0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.30 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 9.47 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.84 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.10 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.76 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.10 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.46 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | −0.06 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.96 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.73 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.12 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 6.57 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.13 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.30 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.27 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | +0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 13.96 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.07 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 13.71 | −0.29 | +1.49 | 0.00 | −1.94 | +0.16 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.50 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.05 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 12.19 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.20 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.98 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 11.64 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.12 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.89 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.02 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 11.62 | −0.38 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −2.00 | +0.10 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.28 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 13.49 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.15 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 12.89 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.15 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 4.98 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.04 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.39 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.03 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 16.62 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.06 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 11.75 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.09 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 12.24 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.34 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.49 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 10.45 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 13.53 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.26 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 12.14 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | +0.80 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 13.01 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.90 | +1.17 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 11.98 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.27 | 0.00 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 11.30 | −2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.08 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.59 | −2.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.38 | −0.03 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 11.15 | −2.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.67 | −0.18 |
Seed 21 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.