Round 14 · simulation 21 · mcts-m2.m2-est-greedy-marginal

Round 2040

Round 14 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture, and the index −0.096 to 12.39.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2040 (the end of 2039) and as it left it.

Capability index
12.39 (−0.096)
In: 12.48
Rank by index
26
In: 25
Domains at Tier 1
1
In: 1
Credits carried
160
In: 150
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology9.8810.01+0.1355
Strategic Infrastructure11.1111.03−0.0805
National Security8.007.67−0.3336
Human Capital15.9115.96+0.0481
Information & Influence12.6312.46−0.1744
Governance & Integrity15.3615.17−0.1894 → 5
Financial Strength12.2112.03−0.18510
Production & Innovation13.1613.11−0.0494
Trade & Investment14.0914.05−0.0373

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2040: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 396, plus 150 carried in. Maintenance 293. Spent 93 on actions (build 19, buy 56, partner 19). 160 carried over.

  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance19 credits for 1.46 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Digital & AI Competence by 0 per cent
  • BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.31 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power by 1 per cent
  • BuySovereign Capital & External Financial Power19 credits for 1.44 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Semiconductors & Advanced Computing by 1 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing19 credits for 1.06 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Space Technologies by 1 per cent
  • PartnerSpace Technologies19 credits for 1.02 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Advanced Education by 1 per cent
  • Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −21.9 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 4 to 5.

The groups that moved most in 2040, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power+1.13+1.440.00−0.36+0.05
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.03+1.460.00−0.430.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.97+1.060.00−0.090.00
Space Technologies+0.92+1.050.00−0.14+0.01
Information Environment & Strategic Communication−0.730.000.00−0.73+0.01
Monetary & Currency Capability−0.710.000.00−0.720.00