Round 1 · simulation 13 · mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-index

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 13 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.069 to 11.56.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index: 11.56 (+0.070); In: 11.49
Rank by index: 32; In: 33
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 25; In: 0

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	6.00	6.25	+0.251	7
Strategic Infrastructure	10.86	10.86	0.000	5
National Security	7.54	7.54	0.000	6
Human Capital	14.56	14.59	+0.037	3
Information & Influence	10.48	10.79	+0.305	6
Governance & Integrity	15.46	15.46	0.000	3
Financial Strength	13.08	13.11	+0.029	9
Production & Innovation	12.81	12.81	0.000	5
Trade & Investment	12.60	12.60	0.000	6

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 347. Maintenance 236. Spent 87 on actions (build 35, buy 35, partner 17). 25 carried over.

BuildFiscal Capacity & Public Finance17 credits for 0.52 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing17 credits for 1.77 levelsmcts_fill
BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills17 credits for 1.70 levelsmcts_fill
BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance17 credits for 1.83 levelsmcts_fill
PartnerSpace Technologies17 credits for 1.47 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	+1.83	+1.83
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	+1.77	+1.77
Space Technologies	+0.73	+0.73
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.34	+0.34
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	+0.17	+0.17