Simulation 13
Estonia, tree search, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 11.52 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 13
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 21 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 11.52 (+0.04)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 32
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.56 +0.069 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.63 +0.072 | |
| 2029 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.31 −0.321 |
| 2030 |
| 11.40 +0.093 | |
| 2031 |
| 11.52 +0.121 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.66 +0.134 | |
| 2033 |
| Breadbasket failure | 11.50 −0.153 |
| 2034 |
| 11.65 +0.151 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break | 11.10 −0.559 |
| 2036 |
| 11.23 +0.138 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.30 +0.067 | |
| 2038 |
| 11.40 +0.104 | |
| 2039 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.23 −0.174 |
| 2040 |
| 11.33 +0.096 | |
| 2041 |
| 11.44 +0.108 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.56 +0.121 | |
| 2043 |
| 11.64 +0.081 | |
| 2044 |
| AI labour shock | 11.59 −0.048 |
| 2045 |
| 11.58 −0.011 | |
| 2046 |
| 11.52 −0.056 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.345 | −173.4 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.049 | +77.6 | +2.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.613 | +45.0 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.437 | +31.3 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.307 | +22.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 11.86 | +9.36 | +11.95 | 0.00 | −2.57 | −0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 10.39 | +7.72 | +9.74 | 0.00 | −2.16 | +0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 14.96 | +6.63 | +6.43 | 0.00 | −2.57 | +2.77 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 18.91 | +5.91 | +6.49 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.05 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 10.57 | +5.77 | +8.29 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.06 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 13.13 | +5.63 | +8.13 | 0.00 | −2.78 | +0.27 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 10.09 | +5.49 | +6.84 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.88 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 9.82 | +4.68 | +6.92 | 0.00 | −2.20 | −0.04 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 13.85 | +3.85 | +6.19 | 0.00 | −2.22 | −0.13 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 16.95 | +3.45 | +5.15 | 0.00 | −2.12 | +0.42 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 9.06 | +3.39 | +4.94 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.32 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 12.77 | +2.77 | +5.71 | 0.00 | −3.34 | +0.40 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 16.25 | +2.75 | +5.41 | 0.00 | −2.96 | +0.30 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 10.06 | +2.66 | +4.65 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 6.52 | +2.52 | +2.36 | 0.00 | −1.86 | +2.02 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 10.77 | +2.37 | +4.94 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.07 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.68 | +2.35 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.04 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 13.11 | +2.31 | +5.18 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 13.12 | +1.79 | +4.51 | 0.00 | −2.79 | +0.07 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 9.73 | +1.48 | +3.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | +0.37 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 15.71 | +1.21 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.11 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.56 | +0.89 | +3.19 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.16 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 5.25 | +0.75 | +2.27 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.28 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.26 | +0.59 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +1.15 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.37 | +0.37 | +2.99 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.22 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 12.97 | +0.30 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.09 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 14.61 | −0.14 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −3.05 | +0.58 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 12.56 | −0.44 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −2.09 | +0.08 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 9.35 | −0.45 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −2.05 | +0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.28 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 5.25 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | +1.05 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.73 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.14 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 12.81 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 13.40 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | 0.00 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.05 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.16 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 4.94 | −1.06 | +1.33 | 0.00 | −2.52 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 8.90 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.53 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.36 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.24 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 14.95 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.10 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.19 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 12.82 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 10.41 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 14.39 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 5.13 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | +0.07 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 12.28 | −1.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.03 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 10.86 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.11 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 6.97 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 7.55 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.02 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 12.48 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.16 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 10.94 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.74 | +0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 13.50 | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.12 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 11.51 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.05 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 9.93 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 12.71 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.16 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 3.54 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.03 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 11.77 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.53 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 12.73 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.33 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 9.46 | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.20 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 9.43 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.30 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 11.00 | −2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | −0.26 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 6.62 | −2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | +0.24 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 12.58 | −2.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.34 | +0.06 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 11.89 | −2.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | −0.12 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 9.13 | −2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 9.62 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.32 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 14.96 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.10 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 9.20 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.90 | +0.43 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 9.46 | −2.54 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −4.27 | +0.13 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 9.30 | −2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | +0.19 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 11.20 | −2.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 10.76 | −2.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −0.09 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 10.92 | −3.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.89 | −0.19 |
Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.