Round 2046
Round 20 of 20 in simulation 21 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index +0.102 to 12.81.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2046 (the end of 2045) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 12.81 (+0.101)
- In: 12.71
- Rank by index
- 23
- In: 24
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- In: 2
- Credits carried
- 321
- In: 304
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 11.25 | 11.61 | +0.362 | 5 → 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 11.18 | 11.22 | +0.044 | 4 |
| National Security | 8.20 | 8.32 | +0.118 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 16.14 | 16.15 | +0.013 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 13.06 | 12.94 | −0.121 | 2 → 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.19 | 15.20 | +0.016 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 12.29 | 12.22 | −0.064 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 12.98 | 13.28 | +0.297 | 4 → 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 14.14 | 14.39 | +0.250 | 3 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2046: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 440, plus 304 carried in. Maintenance 320. Spent 103 on actions (buy 103). 321 carried over.
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing21 credits for 0.98 levelsmctsahead of Space Technologies by 0 per cent
- BuyArtificial Intelligence21 credits for 1.37 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion21 credits for 1.50 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing21 credits for 1.45 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity21 credits for 0.93 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −26.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 5 to 4; Information & Influence Tier 2 to 3; Production & Innovation Tier 4 to 2.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | +1.47 | +1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | +1.44 | +1.50 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 |
| Artificial Intelligence | +1.43 | +1.37 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.20 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | +0.96 | +0.98 | 0.00 | −0.02 | 0.00 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | +0.84 | +0.93 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | +0.73 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.03 |