Round 2032
Round 6 of 20 in simulation 23 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.247 to 11.77.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2032 (the end of 2031) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.77 (−0.247)
- In: 12.02
- Rank by index
- 30
- In: 29
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 155
- In: 123
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7.85 | 7.76 | −0.091 | 5 → 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 11.10 | 10.46 | −0.637 | 5 |
| National Security | 7.66 | 6.92 | −0.741 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 15.30 | 15.57 | +0.266 | 2 → 1 |
| Information & Influence | 11.24 | 10.58 | −0.654 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.57 | 15.23 | −0.332 | 3 → 4 |
| Financial Strength | 13.20 | 13.25 | +0.046 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 13.25 | 13.16 | −0.089 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.98 | 12.99 | +0.008 | 6 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2032: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 383, plus 123 carried in. Maintenance 259. Spent 93 on actions (buy 37, partner 56). 155 carried over.
- PartnerSpace Technologies19 credits for 1.25 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 5 per cent
- BuyEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 1.02 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySensing, Timing & Navigation19 credits for 1.87 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks19 credits for 1.39 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerInvestment Attraction & Projection19 credits for 1.51 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −35.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 5 to 6; Human Capital Tier 2 to 1; Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 4.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | +1.65 | +1.87 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.10 |
| Maritime Power | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.51 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.05 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.01 |