Simulation 23
Estonia, tree search, 20 years, seed 23: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 13.75 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 23
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 12 (median simulation), 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 13.75 (+2.26)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 20
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.55 +0.059 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.66 +0.116 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.75 +0.088 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.83 +0.076 | |
| 2031 |
| Market access opening | 12.02 +0.189 |
| 2032 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.77 −0.247 |
| 2033 |
| 11.99 +0.224 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.14 +0.144 | |
| 2035 |
| 12.24 +0.099 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.36 +0.122 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.44 +0.079 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.55 +0.112 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.68 +0.128 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.76 +0.081 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.89 +0.129 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.97 +0.088 | |
| 2043 |
| 13.10 +0.120 | |
| 2044 |
| Automated discovery step | 13.33 +0.235 |
| 2045 |
| 13.52 +0.187 | |
| 2046 |
| 13.75 +0.229 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.326 | −171.6 | −1.40 |
| No shocks | +1.064 | +78.7 | +2.40 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.023 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.024 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.022 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.616 | +45.2 | +0.60 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.433 | +31.1 | +0.25 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.301 | +22.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 13.76 | +11.26 | +11.04 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 12.73 | +10.06 | +9.94 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.12 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 18.26 | +9.93 | +6.27 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +3.34 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 15.61 | +8.11 | +8.09 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.44 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 17.94 | +7.94 | +7.67 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.10 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 12.25 | +7.11 | +6.79 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.02 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 20.00 | +7.00 | +7.02 | 0.00 | +0.79 | +0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 11.56 | +6.96 | +5.22 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +1.68 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 11.73 | +6.93 | +6.89 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 16.57 | +5.77 | +6.01 | 0.00 | −0.25 | 0.00 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 10.99 | +5.32 | +4.91 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.58 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 15.21 | +5.21 | +5.14 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.45 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 12.61 | +5.21 | +4.81 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.05 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 18.59 | +5.09 | +5.55 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.57 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 16.24 | +4.91 | +4.38 | 0.00 | +0.40 | +0.13 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 12.99 | +4.59 | +4.91 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 12.66 | +4.41 | +3.17 | 0.00 | +0.36 | +0.88 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 17.78 | +4.28 | +3.46 | 0.00 | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 18.04 | +3.71 | +3.14 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.04 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 17.80 | +3.30 | +3.02 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.92 | +3.25 | +3.03 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +0.07 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 15.85 | +3.18 | +2.11 | 0.00 | +0.83 | +0.24 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 17.18 | +2.85 | +2.26 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 6.82 | +2.82 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +1.90 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 7.24 | +2.74 | +2.80 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.42 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.93 | +2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | +2.11 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 11.79 | +1.99 | +1.54 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.17 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.95 | +1.95 | +1.50 | 0.00 | +0.16 | +0.29 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 16.67 | +1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +1.65 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 18.39 | +1.89 | +1.33 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 14.87 | +1.87 | +1.46 | 0.00 | +0.41 | 0.00 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 15.04 | +1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +1.06 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 6.73 | +1.23 | +1.10 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.08 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 1.22 | +1.22 | +0.91 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 10.07 | +1.19 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +0.41 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 7.15 | +1.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +1.62 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.80 | +0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.89 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 13.27 | +0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.51 | +0.26 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 12.76 | +0.76 | +1.56 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.25 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 15.08 | +0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.75 | 0.00 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.70 | +0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.16 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 14.36 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.15 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.59 | +0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.05 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 17.06 | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.54 | +0.02 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 13.08 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.19 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 14.40 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.41 | −0.02 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 14.38 | +0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.11 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 6.34 | +0.34 | +1.30 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.26 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 12.28 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.10 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 14.53 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.95 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.01 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 12.26 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | −0.01 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 15.01 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.03 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 17.64 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.55 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | −0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 11.72 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.22 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.23 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 15.46 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.71 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.22 | −0.01 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 6.84 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.20 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 13.99 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.14 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.79 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.06 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.47 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 13.22 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.03 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.62 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.38 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 14.13 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.04 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.58 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 9.11 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.29 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 13.15 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.21 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 14.61 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 11.13 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.03 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 11.16 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.58 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 11.20 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.29 |
Seed 23 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-est-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.