Round 4 · simulation 44 · mcts-m2.m2-gbr-greedy-marginal

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 44 of United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Chronic disease advance, and the index +0.207 to 16.93.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
16.93 (+0.207)
In: 16.73
Rank by index
2
In: 2
Domains at Tier 1
5
In: 3
Credits carried
344
In: 275
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology16.1616.24+0.0743
Strategic Infrastructure16.0316.07+0.0402
National Security16.2816.280.0002
Human Capital18.0018.51+0.5091
Information & Influence17.1517.18+0.0332
Governance & Integrity16.4816.56+0.0841
Financial Strength17.3617.53+0.1762 → 1
Production & Innovation16.3516.49+0.1321
Trade & Investment16.7417.55+0.8152 → 1

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 951, plus 275 carried in. Maintenance 644. Spent 238 on actions (build 48, partner 190). 344 carried over.

  • BuildEconomic Output & Productivity48 credits for 2.07 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 7 per cent
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication48 credits for 2.77 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Global Value Chain Position by 3 per cent
  • PartnerGlobal Value Chain Position48 credits for 2.68 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 2 per cent
  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance48 credits for 1.17 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Economic Leverage & Dependence by 0 per cent
  • PartnerEconomic Leverage & Dependence48 credits for 2.83 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Investment Attraction & Projection by 1 per cent
  • Upside event: Chronic disease advance S19. +18.1 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Financial Strength Tier 2 to 1; Trade & Investment Tier 2 to 1.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Economic Leverage & Dependence+1.45+1.420.00+0.030.00
Export Capability & Sophistication+1.42+1.390.00+0.030.00
Global Value Chain Position+1.40+1.340.00+0.03+0.02
Foundational Education+1.40+1.330.00+0.070.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+1.34+1.410.00+0.030.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.83+2.150.00+0.070.00