Simulation 44
United Kingdom, greedy, 20 years, seed 44: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.89 in 2046; 88 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 44
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 43 (median simulation), 27 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.89 (+1.44)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.49 +0.038 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.57 +0.073 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.73 +0.163 | |
| 2030 |
| Chronic disease advance | 16.93 +0.207 |
| 2031 |
| 17.15 +0.215 | |
| 2032 |
| AI labour shock | 17.23 +0.083 |
| 2033 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.22 −0.016 |
| 2034 |
| 17.25 +0.034 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.31 +0.062 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.48 +0.166 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.63 +0.155 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.80 +0.168 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.94 +0.137 | |
| 2040 |
| 18.02 +0.077 | |
| 2041 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.89 −0.121 |
| 2042 |
| Hybrid coercion | 17.79 −0.107 |
| 2043 |
| 17.84 +0.051 | |
| 2044 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.63 −0.213 |
| 2045 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 17.76 +0.132 |
| 2046 |
| 17.89 +0.133 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.013 | −143.3 | −4.40 |
| No shocks | +0.119 | +9.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.019 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.026 | −1.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.012 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.055 | +3.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.037 | +3.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.043 | −3.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 19.93 | +5.26 | +10.77 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.22 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +10.50 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.43 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 20.00 | +4.25 | +6.64 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.37 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.63 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.40 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 19.99 | +3.99 | +4.92 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.41 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 17.24 | +3.74 | +4.72 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 19.96 | +3.63 | +4.16 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.20 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 19.78 | +3.45 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.13 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 19.03 | +3.43 | +4.15 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.06 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 19.88 | +3.38 | +5.68 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.56 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 18.04 | +3.37 | +4.34 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.22 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.85 | +3.25 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.05 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.19 | +3.19 | +4.16 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +0.10 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.46 | +3.13 | +4.77 | 0.00 | −1.94 | +0.30 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 17.12 | +3.12 | +3.78 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.13 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 19.26 | +3.01 | +3.24 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.14 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.99 | +2.99 | +3.70 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.74 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 19.65 | +2.98 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.33 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 18.57 | +2.90 | +4.93 | 0.00 | −1.95 | +0.48 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 18.05 | +2.80 | +4.09 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.15 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 18.39 | +2.79 | +3.14 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.38 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.78 | +2.78 | +4.59 | 0.00 | −2.18 | +0.37 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +4.87 | 0.00 | −1.87 | +0.19 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 18.69 | +2.69 | +4.47 | 0.00 | −1.92 | +0.15 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.60 | +2.60 | +4.12 | 0.00 | −1.56 | +0.05 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 18.46 | +2.46 | +3.93 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.26 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 17.85 | +2.35 | +2.47 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.30 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.34 | +2.34 | +2.15 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.38 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 17.12 | +1.92 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.24 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 17.83 | +1.83 | +2.34 | 0.00 | −0.76 | +0.25 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.75 | +1.75 | +3.91 | 0.00 | −2.40 | +0.24 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 15.62 | +1.62 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.07 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.82 | +1.49 | +2.33 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.27 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.95 | +1.45 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.26 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 15.69 | +1.44 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.10 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 17.77 | +1.37 | +2.22 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.19 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 18.94 | +1.34 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.09 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.81 | +1.31 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.33 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 18.15 | +1.15 | +1.57 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.25 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 19.14 | +1.14 | +2.41 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.10 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.11 | +1.11 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.05 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 18.28 | +1.03 | +2.14 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.62 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 17.59 | +1.02 | +1.89 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.12 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.08 | +0.95 | +1.83 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.07 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 18.42 | +0.92 | +1.93 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.29 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 17.87 | +0.87 | +2.13 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 18.89 | +0.64 | +1.78 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.16 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.05 | +0.55 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −1.99 | +0.24 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 18.48 | +0.48 | +2.07 | 0.00 | −1.73 | +0.14 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 17.62 | +0.42 | +0.92 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.21 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 18.73 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.58 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 17.76 | +0.36 | +1.92 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 17.66 | −0.01 | +0.34 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.03 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.61 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.36 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.42 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.33 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 16.92 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.34 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.78 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.18 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.41 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.16 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.10 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.28 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.68 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.28 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 16.67 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 16.96 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.30 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.62 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.29 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.83 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.27 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.25 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.02 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.50 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.16 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.45 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.11 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 16.13 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.11 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 17.60 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.26 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 16.53 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.27 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 16.16 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.06 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 15.86 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.16 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 15.81 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.05 |
Seed 44 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-greedy-marginal. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.