Round 4 · simulation 13 · mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-index

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 13 of United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.147 to 16.87.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
16.87 (+0.147)
In: 16.72
Rank by index
2
In: 2
Domains at Tier 1
4
In: 4
Credits carried
379
In: 287
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology16.1616.17+0.0023
Strategic Infrastructure16.0316.03+0.0072
National Security16.2816.29+0.0022
Human Capital17.9518.41+0.4651
Information & Influence17.1617.16+0.0082
Governance & Integrity16.4816.48+0.0021
Financial Strength17.5617.56+0.0061
Production & Innovation16.3516.45+0.1001
Trade & Investment16.5417.27+0.7333 → 2

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 977, plus 287 carried in. Maintenance 644. Spent 241 on actions (build 96, partner 145). 379 carried over.

  • BuildTrade Policy & Market Access48 credits for 1.89 levelsmctsahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 0 per cent
  • BuildEconomic Output & Productivity48 credits for 2.10 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication48 credits for 2.81 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerGlobal Value Chain Position48 credits for 2.71 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerEconomic Leverage & Dependence48 credits for 2.87 levelsmcts_fill

Tiers. Trade & Investment Tier 3 to 2.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Economic Leverage & Dependence+1.43+1.430.000.000.00
Export Capability & Sophistication+1.40+1.400.000.000.00
Global Value Chain Position+1.35+1.350.000.000.00
Foundational Education+1.33+1.330.000.000.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+1.25+1.250.000.000.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.94+0.940.000.000.00