A poor simulation (10th percentile) · mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-index

Simulation 13

United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 13: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.97 in 2046; 86 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 13

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 36 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 17.97 (+1.52); From 16.45
Rank by index: 2; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 5 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Buy Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Build Advanced Education 48		16.50 +0.050
2028	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 48 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48		16.57 +0.069
2029	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 48 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Foundational Education 48 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 48		16.72 +0.150
2030	Build Trade Policy & Market Access 48 Build Economic Output & Productivity 48 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 48 Partner Global Value Chain Position 48 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 48		16.87 +0.147
2031	Partner Economic Output & Productivity 49 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 49 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 49 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 49 Build Early Childhood Development 49		17.06 +0.187
2032	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 49 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Build Early Childhood Development 49 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 49 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 49		17.21 +0.154
2033	Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 51 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 51 Build Early Childhood Development 51 Build Population Health 51 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 51	Breadbasket failure	17.18 −0.031
2034	Partner Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 53 Build Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 53 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 53 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 53 Partner Digital & Services Trade 53		17.30 +0.117
2035	Partner Space Operations 53 Buy Artificial Intelligence 53 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 53 Build Labour & Employment 53 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 53	Legitimacy ruptureCryptographic trust break	17.07 −0.224
2036	Buy Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 54 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 54 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 54 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 54 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 54		17.21 +0.141
2037	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 52 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 52 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 52 Partner Space Technologies 52 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 52		17.39 +0.172
2038	Buy Health System Capability 52 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 52 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 52 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 52 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 52		17.53 +0.145
2039	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 52 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 52 Buy Energy Technologies 52 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 52 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 52	Global funding seizure	17.45 −0.081
2040	Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 52 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 52 Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 52 Build Financial Infrastructure 52 Build Financial System Depth & Access 52		17.56 +0.114
2041	Buy Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 51 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 51 Partner Global Value Chain Position 51 Build Labour & Employment 51 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 51		17.76 +0.194
2042	Buy Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 51 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 51 Build Internal Security & Order 51 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 51 Buy Energy Infrastructure 51		17.90 +0.143
2043	Partner Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 52 Build Resource Infrastructure 52 Partner Space Technologies 52 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 52		18.02 +0.124
2044	Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 53 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 53	AI labour shock	18.06 +0.033
2045	No actions		18.03 −0.031
2046	No actions		17.97 −0.055

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.047	−146.9	−4.40
No shocks	+0.119	+8.7	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.019	−1.3	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.026	−1.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.017	−1.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.015	−1.4	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.009	−0.8	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.049	+2.7	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.051	+2.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.064	+4.2	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	19.63	+4.96	+8.07	0.00	−0.55	+0.12
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	19.89	+4.89	+10.50	0.00	−0.36	+0.23
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	19.94	+4.19	+6.65	0.00	−0.37	+0.36
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.38	+4.05	+4.94	−0.01	−1.24	+0.36
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	19.93	+3.93	+6.58	0.00	−0.46	+0.25
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	18.55	+3.88	+4.43	−0.01	−0.94	+0.40
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	17.25	+3.75	+4.81	−0.01	−1.10	+0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	19.93	+3.68	+5.81	0.00	−0.85	+0.14
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	19.04	+3.54	+3.83	0.00	−0.60	+0.31
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	19.11	+3.44	+5.03	−0.01	−1.25	+0.38
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	18.62	+3.42	+3.92	−0.01	−0.78	+0.29
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	18.37	+3.37	+4.49	−0.01	−1.49	+0.37
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	19.68	+3.35	+3.97	0.00	−0.68	+0.07
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	19.31	+3.31	+4.38	−0.01	−1.23	+0.16
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	18.53	+3.28	+4.07	−0.01	−0.94	+0.16
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	19.70	+3.20	+5.68	0.00	−0.53	+0.47
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	17.07	+3.07	+3.82	−0.01	−0.97	+0.23
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.89	+2.89	+3.76	−0.01	−1.24	+0.38
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	16.65	+2.65	+3.50	−0.01	−0.96	+0.12
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.52	+2.52	+3.88	−0.01	−1.70	+0.34
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.48	+2.48	+3.06	−0.01	−1.07	+0.50
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	18.95	+2.45	+2.90	−0.01	−0.66	+0.22
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	19.67	+2.42	+3.64	−0.01	−1.11	+0.27
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	19.28	+2.28	+3.10	0.00	−1.13	+0.31
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	17.97	+1.97	+2.17	0.00	−0.51	+0.32
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	18.88	+1.88	+1.95	0.00	−0.58	+0.52
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	17.43	+1.83	+1.90	−0.01	−0.68	+0.61
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	17.72	+1.72	+2.16	0.00	−0.79	+0.36
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	15.89	+1.64	+2.17	0.00	−0.67	+0.14
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	16.29	+1.62	+1.65	−0.01	−0.61	+0.59
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	17.17	+1.57	+2.44	−0.01	−1.01	+0.16
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	17.55	+1.55	+2.31	−0.01	−0.94	+0.20
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	18.78	+1.45	+2.31	−0.01	−1.22	+0.38
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	16.10	+1.43	+1.93	−0.01	−0.61	+0.12
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	18.92	+1.42	+2.06	−0.01	−1.04	+0.41
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	15.37	+1.37	+2.08	−0.01	−0.81	+0.11
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	18.55	+1.30	+2.94	−0.01	−2.19	+0.55
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	17.62	+1.29	+1.74	0.00	−0.57	+0.12
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.88	+1.28	+2.55	−0.01	−1.31	+0.06
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	17.67	+1.27	+2.30	−0.01	−1.29	+0.26
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	17.94	+1.27	+1.89	0.00	−0.82	+0.20
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	18.18	+1.18	+1.82	−0.01	−0.77	+0.14
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	17.29	+1.16	+1.83	−0.01	−0.79	+0.14
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	18.15	+1.15	+2.01	−0.01	−1.00	+0.14
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.11	+1.11	+2.17	−0.01	−1.11	+0.09
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	19.43	+1.10	+1.01	0.00	−0.44	+0.53
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	17.62	+1.05	+1.87	−0.01	−0.92	+0.11
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	17.98	+0.98	+2.27	−0.01	−1.36	+0.08
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.62	+0.95	+1.62	0.00	−0.73	+0.06
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	19.11	+0.86	+1.91	−0.01	−0.93	−0.10
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	18.27	+0.77	+2.01	−0.01	−1.51	+0.28
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.19	+0.69	+2.20	−0.01	−1.74	+0.23
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	17.96	+0.56	+2.04	−0.01	−1.55	+0.07
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	18.27	+0.52	+1.94	−0.01	−1.55	+0.13
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	18.43	+0.43	+2.22	−0.01	−1.90	+0.11
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	17.76	+0.09	+1.88	0.00	−1.87	+0.08
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.29	−0.21	0.00	−0.01	−0.59	+0.40
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	16.86	−0.23	0.00	−0.01	−0.73	+0.51
Air Power	National Security	17.00	16.69	−0.31	0.00	−0.01	−0.59	+0.29
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	13.94	−0.31	0.00	0.00	−0.81	+0.50
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	16.65	−0.35	0.00	−0.01	−0.59	+0.24
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	15.97	−0.43	0.00	0.00	−0.64	+0.21
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	15.57	−0.43	0.00	−0.01	−0.66	+0.23
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	16.47	−0.53	0.00	−0.01	−0.59	+0.06
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	16.60	−0.60	0.00	−0.01	−0.91	+0.31
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	16.07	−0.60	0.00	0.00	−0.59	−0.01
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	16.89	−0.61	0.00	−0.01	−0.98	+0.38
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	16.10	−0.65	0.00	−0.01	−0.91	+0.27
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	16.87	−0.73	0.00	−0.01	−0.90	+0.17
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	16.59	−0.74	0.00	−0.01	−0.92	+0.19
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	17.23	−0.77	0.00	−0.01	−0.91	+0.15
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	17.62	−0.78	0.00	−0.01	−1.09	+0.31
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	15.80	−1.87	0.00	0.00	−1.89	+0.03

Seed 13 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.