Round 2030
Round 4 of 20 in simulation 10 of United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Hybrid coercion, and the index −0.099 to 16.40.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 16.40 (−0.099)
- In: 16.50
- Rank by index
- 3
- In: 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- In: 3
- Credits carried
- 360
- In: 274
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 16.44 | 16.24 | −0.197 | 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 15.78 | 15.33 | −0.449 | 2 |
| National Security | 16.23 | 15.76 | −0.474 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 17.69 | 18.19 | +0.502 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 16.91 | 16.39 | −0.520 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 16.35 | 16.09 | −0.269 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 17.09 | 17.09 | −0.001 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 15.71 | 16.05 | +0.341 | 1 → 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 16.27 | 16.44 | +0.179 | 3 → 2 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 935, plus 274 carried in. Maintenance 615. Spent 234 on actions (build 47, buy 47, partner 140). 360 carried over.
- PartnerAdvanced Education47 credits for 1.27 levelsmctsahead of Technology Adoption & Diffusion by 0 per cent
- BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion47 credits for 3.09 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access47 credits for 2.97 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildEconomic Output & Productivity47 credits for 2.02 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication47 credits for 2.77 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Hybrid coercion S04. −19.8 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Production & Innovation Tier 1 to 2; Trade & Investment Tier 3 to 2.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | +2.89 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | +1.34 | +1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +1.25 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | +1.15 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +0.95 | +2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Education | +0.83 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |