A poor simulation (10th percentile) · mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-tier1

Simulation 10

United Kingdom, tree search, 20 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.87 in 2046; 81 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 50 (median simulation), 5 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2046.

Capability index: 17.87 (+1.41); From 16.45
Rank by index: 2; From 3
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 4 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 48 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48	Breadbasket failure	16.33 −0.128
2028	Buy Space Technologies 48 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 48 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 48 Build Digital & AI Competence 48 Build Foundational Education 48		16.41 +0.080
2029	Partner Space Operations 47 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 47 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 47 Build Advanced Education 47 Build Foundational Education 47		16.50 +0.091
2030	Partner Advanced Education 47 Buy Technology Adoption & Diffusion 47 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 47 Build Economic Output & Productivity 47 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 47	Hybrid coercion	16.40 −0.099
2031	Partner Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 47 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 47 Build Economic Output & Productivity 47 Partner Global Value Chain Position 47 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 47		16.55 +0.154
2032	Build Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 47 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 47 Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 47 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 47 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 47		16.73 +0.178
2033	Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 49 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 49 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 49 Build Early Childhood Development 49 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 49		16.90 +0.165
2034	Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 52 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 52 Build Early Childhood Development 52 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 52 Partner Digital & Services Trade 52		17.06 +0.164
2035	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 53 Build Early Childhood Development 53 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 53 Buy Artificial Intelligence 53 Buy Industrial & Sectoral Base 53	AI labour shock	17.17 +0.107
2036	Partner Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 54 Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 54 Build Population Health 54 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 54 Build Labour & Employment 54	Middle East settlement	17.24 +0.073
2037	Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 47 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 47 Buy Advanced Manufacturing 47 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 47 Build Population Health 47		17.34 +0.104
2038	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 48 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 48 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 48 Build Health System Capability 48 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 48		17.54 +0.197
2039	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 55 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 55 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 55 Build Health System Capability 55 Buy Energy Technologies 55		17.69 +0.144
2040	Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 53 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 53 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 53 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 53 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 53		17.79 +0.102
2041	Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 53 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 53 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 53 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 11		17.93 +0.147
2042	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 53 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 53		18.05 +0.118
2043	Buy Space Operations 53	AI labour shock	18.01 −0.047
2044	No actions		17.90 −0.108
2045	No actions		17.80 −0.103
2046	Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 46 Buy Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 46 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 18 Buy Space Technologies 18		17.87 +0.070

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046
Critical Technology	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	3	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.021	−144.3	−4.40
No shocks	+0.106	+8.4	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.016	−1.3	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.014	−0.9	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.032	−2.5	−0.20
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.010	−0.9	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.014	−1.1	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.048	+2.8	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.040	+2.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	−0.015	−1.4	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2046	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.00	19.86	+4.86	+10.58	−0.02	−0.38	+0.35
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	14.67	19.48	+4.81	+10.80	−0.02	−0.74	+0.10
Foundational Education	Human Capital	15.75	19.93	+4.18	+6.70	−0.03	−0.39	+0.33
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+6.97	−0.03	−0.54	+0.67
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	14.67	18.65	+3.98	+4.62	−0.05	−0.91	+0.32
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.95	+3.95	+4.25	−0.02	−0.56	+0.27
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	19.25	+3.92	+5.47	−0.06	−1.19	+0.19
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.50	19.35	+3.85	+4.08	−0.01	−0.42	+0.21
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	15.67	19.45	+3.78	+4.50	−0.06	−1.18	+0.52
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	16.25	20.00	+3.75	+5.34	−0.01	−0.21	+0.14
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	16.33	20.00	+3.67	+5.67	−0.01	−0.41	+0.14
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.20	18.71	+3.51	+4.09	−0.04	−0.84	+0.30
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.33	19.82	+3.49	+3.78	−0.03	−0.43	+0.18
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.00	19.41	+3.41	+3.98	−0.05	−0.87	+0.35
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.25	18.55	+3.30	+4.22	−0.05	−0.95	+0.08
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	16.50	19.60	+3.10	+5.74	−0.03	−0.75	+0.57
Space Operations	National Security	14.67	17.76	+3.09	+3.19	−0.07	−0.32	+0.28
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.67	19.68	+3.01	+3.49	−0.01	−0.70	+0.24
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	14.00	16.79	+2.79	+3.74	−0.07	−1.01	+0.14
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	19.78	+2.78	+4.02	−0.07	−1.04	+0.11
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	16.00	18.73	+2.73	+3.09	−0.06	−0.99	+0.69
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.64	+2.64	+3.30	−0.03	−0.83	+0.68
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.00	19.35	+2.35	+2.89	−0.02	−0.81	+0.29
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.25	19.20	+1.95	+2.97	−0.05	−1.15	+0.18
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	17.50	19.40	+1.90	+2.42	−0.05	−1.00	+0.53
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.36	+1.76	+2.88	−0.09	−1.15	+0.12
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	16.40	18.12	+1.72	+2.23	−0.04	−0.79	+0.30
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	16.00	17.71	+1.71	+2.76	−0.05	−1.17	+0.17
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	15.60	17.30	+1.70	+2.54	−0.08	−0.86	+0.10
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	13.50	15.13	+1.63	+2.70	−0.04	−1.07	+0.04
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	14.00	15.62	+1.62	+1.83	−0.06	−0.33	+0.17
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.00	17.57	+1.57	+2.40	−0.09	−0.95	+0.21
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	18.00	19.57	+1.57	+2.96	−0.06	−1.24	+0.10
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	16.56	+1.56	+2.62	−0.04	−1.55	+0.53
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	17.50	18.98	+1.48	+2.26	−0.06	−1.06	+0.33
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	18.33	19.75	+1.42	+1.91	−0.03	−0.44	+0.64
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	17.87	+1.37	+1.71	−0.04	−0.67	+0.37
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.37	+1.37	+2.43	−0.05	−1.15	+0.14
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.00	15.34	+1.34	+2.32	−0.07	−1.01	+0.10
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	15.60	16.91	+1.31	+1.72	−0.04	−0.68	+0.30
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	17.25	18.55	+1.30	+2.34	−0.03	−1.56	+0.55
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	14.67	15.93	+1.26	+1.50	−0.06	−0.32	+0.13
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.57	17.82	+1.25	+2.09	−0.07	−0.92	+0.16
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.19	+1.19	+2.54	−0.05	−1.38	+0.09
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	17.33	18.51	+1.18	+2.35	−0.09	−1.58	+0.50
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	17.67	18.53	+0.86	+1.53	−0.01	−0.71	+0.06
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.33	+0.83	+2.38	−0.05	−1.92	+0.43
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	18.00	18.14	+0.14	+2.20	−0.05	−2.10	+0.09
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.09	17.13	+0.04	0.00	−0.04	−0.46	+0.54
Land Power	National Security	16.50	16.53	+0.03	0.00	−0.06	−0.30	+0.40
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	17.20	17.19	−0.01	+0.83	−0.07	−0.91	+0.14
Air Power	National Security	17.00	16.84	−0.16	0.00	−0.06	−0.30	+0.20
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	16.67	16.46	−0.21	0.00	−0.01	−0.30	+0.11
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	17.00	16.76	−0.24	0.00	−0.06	−0.30	+0.12
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.00	15.72	−0.28	0.00	−0.03	−0.47	+0.23
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.40	16.06	−0.34	0.00	−0.01	−0.63	+0.30
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	17.33	16.92	−0.41	0.00	−0.06	−0.69	+0.34
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	16.00	15.58	−0.42	0.00	−0.01	−0.54	+0.14
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	13.82	−0.43	0.00	−0.03	−0.87	+0.47
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	18.00	17.57	−0.43	0.00	−0.07	−0.48	+0.12
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.25	13.71	−0.54	0.00	−0.03	−0.69	+0.17
Maritime Power	National Security	17.00	16.41	−0.59	0.00	−0.06	−0.69	+0.17
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	17.75	17.13	−0.62	0.00	−0.03	−0.75	+0.15
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	18.40	17.75	−0.65	0.00	−0.05	−1.03	+0.44
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	17.50	16.80	−0.70	0.00	−0.05	−0.92	+0.26
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.25	17.48	−0.77	0.00	−0.04	−0.64	−0.09
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.40	16.63	−0.77	0.00	−0.03	−0.75	+0.01
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	16.75	15.96	−0.79	0.00	−0.07	−0.92	+0.20
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	17.60	16.78	−0.82	0.00	−0.08	−0.91	+0.16
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.67	16.85	−0.82	0.00	−0.03	−0.75	−0.05
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	17.67	16.79	−0.88	0.00	−0.03	−0.94	+0.08
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	15.22	−0.91	0.00	−0.03	−1.02	+0.14
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	17.00	16.05	−0.95	0.00	−0.04	−0.93	+0.03

Seed 10 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-gbr-mcts-tier1. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.