Round 4 · simulation 40 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-greedy-marginal

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.042 to 6.55.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
6.55 (+0.042)
In: 6.51
Rank by index
90
In: 90
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
0
In: 0
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology2.602.68+0.07811
Strategic Infrastructure6.876.82−0.0448
National Security3.513.49−0.01910
Human Capital7.667.79+0.12912
Information & Influence8.088.07−0.0069
Governance & Integrity8.358.35−0.00615
Financial Strength7.577.62+0.05620
Production & Innovation6.876.96+0.09717 → 16
Trade & Investment7.087.17+0.09113

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 123. Maintenance 93. Spent 30 on actions (build 6, buy 12, partner 12). 0 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills6 credits for 0.72 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 7 per cent
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication6 credits for 0.76 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technology Adoption & Diffusion by 0 per cent
  • BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion6 credits for 0.77 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance6 credits for 0.38 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Artificial Intelligence by 1 per cent
  • BuyArtificial Intelligence6 credits for 0.87 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 1 per cent

Tiers. Production & Innovation Tier 17 to 16.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Artificial Intelligence+0.84+0.870.000.00−0.03
Technology Adoption & Diffusion+0.76+0.770.000.00−0.01
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.65+0.650.000.000.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.42+0.430.000.00−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.39+0.390.000.000.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance+0.37+0.390.000.00−0.02