Round 5 · simulation 40 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-greedy-marginal

Round 2031

Round 5 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.050 to 6.60.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2031 (the end of 2030) and as it left it.

Capability index
6.60 (+0.051)
In: 6.55
Rank by index
90
In: 90
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
2
In: 0
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology2.682.76+0.07711
Strategic Infrastructure6.826.78−0.0438
National Security3.493.48−0.01910
Human Capital7.797.92+0.13812
Information & Influence8.078.27+0.1939 → 8
Governance & Integrity8.358.34−0.00615
Financial Strength7.627.65+0.03120
Production & Innovation6.966.95−0.01016
Trade & Investment7.177.26+0.09013

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2031: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 126. Maintenance 93. Spent 31 on actions (build 6, buy 12, partner 12). 2 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills6 credits for 0.69 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 4 per cent
  • PartnerExport Capability & Sophistication6 credits for 0.75 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Alliances & Security Cooperation by 1 per cent
  • PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation6 credits for 0.88 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies by 0 per cent
  • BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies6 credits for 0.84 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 1 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance6 credits for 0.74 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent

Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 9 to 8.

The groups that moved most in 2031, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies+0.84+0.840.000.000.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.78+0.790.000.000.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+0.75+0.740.000.00+0.01
Export Capability & Sophistication+0.74+0.750.000.00−0.01
Alliances & Security Cooperation+0.41+0.440.000.00−0.02
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.38+0.390.000.000.00