Round 4 · simulation 43 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-greedy-marginal

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 43 of Kenya, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.042 to 7.08.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
7.08 (+0.042)
In: 7.04
Rank by index
80
In: 80
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
3
In: 0
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology2.732.81+0.07912 → 11
Strategic Infrastructure7.787.77−0.0058
National Security4.494.49+0.0029
Human Capital7.857.99+0.14012
Information & Influence8.118.24+0.1269
Governance & Integrity8.768.76−0.00115
Financial Strength8.308.29−0.00618
Production & Innovation7.447.43−0.00614
Trade & Investment7.897.94+0.05113

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 139. Maintenance 106. Spent 31 on actions (build 12, buy 12, partner 6). 3 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills6 credits for 0.72 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 7 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance6 credits for 0.77 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies by 1 per cent
  • BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies6 credits for 0.86 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Digital & AI Competence by 1 per cent
  • BuildDigital & AI Competence6 credits for 0.65 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Trade Policy & Market Access by 1 per cent
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access6 credits for 0.84 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Export Capability & Sophistication by 0 per cent

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 12 to 11.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies+0.86+0.860.000.000.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+0.76+0.770.000.00−0.01
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.65+0.650.000.000.00
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.41+0.420.000.00−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.34+0.340.000.000.00
Digital & AI Competence+0.28+0.280.000.000.00