Round 1 · simulation 29 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-score-sum

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 29 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.034 to 7.21.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index: 7.21 (+0.034); In: 7.18
Rank by index: 79; In: 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 2; In: 0

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	2.90	3.00	+0.106	12
Strategic Infrastructure	7.88	7.88	0.000	7
National Security	4.60	4.60	0.000	9
Human Capital	7.68	7.70	+0.027	12
Information & Influence	8.21	8.36	+0.151	9
Governance & Integrity	8.89	8.89	0.000	14
Financial Strength	8.57	8.58	+0.016	17
Production & Innovation	7.57	7.57	0.000	14
Trade & Investment	8.30	8.30	0.000	12

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 143. Maintenance 110. Spent 32 on actions (build 17, buy 14). 2 carried over.

BuildFiscal Capacity & Public Finance7 credits for 0.30 levelsmctsahead of Research Talent & Knowledge Creation by 1 per cent
BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.89 levelsmcts_fill
BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies7 credits for 1.06 levelsmcts_fill
BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance7 credits for 0.91 levelsmcts_fill
BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling3 credits for 0.35 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	+1.06	+1.06
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	+0.91	+0.91
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.18	+0.18
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	+0.10	+0.10
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.07	+0.07