Round 4 · simulation 29 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-score-sum

Round 2030

Round 4 of 20 in simulation 29 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.028 to 7.32.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index: 7.32 (+0.028); In: 7.29
Rank by index: 77; In: 77
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 2; In: 1

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	3.10	3.15	+0.041	10
Strategic Infrastructure	7.88	7.88	+0.002	7
National Security	4.60	4.61	+0.006	9
Human Capital	7.95	8.12	+0.178	12
Information & Influence	8.57	8.57	+0.004	7
Governance & Integrity	8.89	8.89	+0.001	14
Financial Strength	8.62	8.63	+0.017	17
Production & Innovation	7.70	7.70	+0.003	14
Trade & Investment	8.30	8.30	0.000	12

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 145. Maintenance 112. Spent 32 on actions (build 29, buy 3). 2 carried over.

BuildFiscal Capacity & Public Finance7 credits for 0.30 levelsmctsahead of Digital & AI Competence by 1 per cent
BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.84 levelsmcts_fill
BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling7 credits for 0.84 levelsmcts_fill
BuildDigital & AI Competence7 credits for 0.74 levelsmcts_fill
BuyArtificial Intelligence3 credits for 0.40 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested	Graph
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.69	+0.69	0.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.61	+0.61	0.00
Artificial Intelligence	+0.40	+0.40	0.00
Digital & AI Competence	+0.29	+0.29	0.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	+0.10	+0.10	0.00
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	+0.05	0.00	+0.05