Round 2027
Round 1 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Regional war spillover, and the index −0.711 to 6.47.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.47 (−0.711)
- In: 7.18
- Rank by index
- 90
- In: 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 2
- In: 0
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.53 | −0.371 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.88 | 6.90 | −0.977 | 7 → 8 |
| National Security | 4.60 | 3.52 | −1.074 | 9 → 10 |
| Human Capital | 7.68 | 7.45 | −0.227 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.21 | 7.96 | −0.253 | 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 8.36 | −0.534 | 14 → 15 |
| Financial Strength | 8.57 | 7.60 | −0.965 | 17 → 20 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.57 | 6.78 | −0.790 | 14 → 17 |
| Trade & Investment | 8.30 | 7.09 | −1.211 | 12 → 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 143. Maintenance 110. Spent 32 on actions (build 17, buy 14). 2 carried over.
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies7 credits for 1.06 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.89 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance7 credits for 0.91 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling7 credits for 0.86 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence3 credits for 0.31 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Regional war spillover S03. −55.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; National Security Tier 9 to 10; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 15; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 20; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 17; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.86 | 0.00 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.85 | 0.00 |
| Maritime Power | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | 0.00 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | −1.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | 0.00 |