Round 2027
Round 1 of 20 in simulation 6 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Legitimacy rupture, and the index −0.511 to 6.67.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 6.67 (−0.511)
- In: 7.18
- Rank by index
- 88
- In: 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 2
- In: 0
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2.90 | 2.63 | −0.269 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7.88 | 7.52 | −0.357 | 7 → 8 |
| National Security | 4.60 | 3.83 | −0.766 | 9 |
| Human Capital | 7.68 | 7.49 | −0.190 | 12 |
| Information & Influence | 8.21 | 7.55 | −0.664 | 9 → 10 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8.89 | 8.30 | −0.597 | 14 → 16 |
| Financial Strength | 8.57 | 7.62 | −0.949 | 17 → 19 |
| Production & Innovation | 7.57 | 7.23 | −0.341 | 14 → 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 8.30 | 7.83 | −0.465 | 12 → 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2027: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 143. Maintenance 110. Spent 32 on actions (build 17, buy 14). 2 carried over.
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.89 levelsmctsahead of Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies by -2 per cent
- BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies7 credits for 1.06 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance7 credits for 0.91 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling7 credits for 0.86 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildDigital & AI Competence3 credits for 0.31 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Legitimacy rupture S05. −38.9 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; Information & Influence Tier 9 to 10; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 16; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 19; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 15; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | 0.00 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | 0.00 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | 0.00 |