Round 2045
Round 19 of 20 in simulation 6 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.602 to 5.55.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2045 (the end of 2044) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 5.55 (−0.602)
- In: 6.16
- Rank by index
- 110
- In: 94
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 35
- In: 25
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3.58 | 3.40 | −0.187 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6.12 | 5.32 | −0.793 | 9 → 10 |
| National Security | 2.73 | 2.41 | −0.319 | 6 → 13 |
| Human Capital | 7.83 | 7.32 | −0.517 | 11 |
| Information & Influence | 7.61 | 6.82 | −0.796 | 8 → 9 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7.25 | 6.81 | −0.441 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 6.42 | 5.56 | −0.868 | 23 → 25 |
| Production & Innovation | 6.64 | 5.98 | −0.660 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 7.20 | 6.36 | −0.839 | 12 → 13 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2045: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 130, plus 25 carried in. Maintenance 89. Spent 32 on actions (build 6, buy 19, partner 6). 35 carried over.
- BuildSensing, Timing & Navigation6 credits for 0.36 levelsmctsahead of Trade Facilitation & Logistics by 0 per cent
- BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing6 credits for 0.74 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerTrade Facilitation & Logistics6 credits for 0.75 levelsmcts_fill
- BuyRobotics & Autonomous Systems6 credits for 0.77 levelsmcts_fill
- BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing6 credits for 0.58 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −45.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 9 to 10; National Security Tier 6 to 13; Information & Influence Tier 8 to 9; Financial Strength Tier 23 to 25; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.01 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | −1.23 | +0.20 | 0.00 | −1.42 | −0.01 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | 0.00 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.01 |