Round 2 · simulation 29 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-mcts-tier1

Round 2028

Round 2 of 20 in simulation 29 of Kenya, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.033 to 7.24.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2028 (the end of 2027) and as it left it.

Capability index: 7.24 (+0.032); In: 7.21
Rank by index: 78; In: 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 3; In: 2

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	3.00	3.00	0.000	12
Strategic Infrastructure	7.88	7.88	0.000	7
National Security	4.60	4.60	0.000	9
Human Capital	7.70	7.79	+0.087	12
Information & Influence	8.36	8.42	+0.060	9
Governance & Integrity	8.89	8.89	0.000	14
Financial Strength	8.58	8.60	+0.018	17
Production & Innovation	7.57	7.70	+0.130	14
Trade & Investment	8.30	8.30	0.000	12

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2028: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 144, plus 2 carried in. Maintenance 111. Spent 32 on actions (build 14, buy 10, partner 7). 3 carried over.

PartnerLifelong Learning & Reskilling7 credits for 0.63 levelsmcts
BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.88 levelsmcts_fill
BuildDigital & AI Competence7 credits for 0.76 levelsmcts_fill
BuyTechnology Adoption & Diffusion7 credits for 0.91 levelsmcts_fill
BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance3 credits for 0.35 levelsmcts_fill

The groups that moved most in 2028, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Invested
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	+0.91	+0.91
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	+0.36	+0.35
Technical & Vocational Skills	+0.35	+0.35
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	+0.28	+0.28
Digital & AI Competence	+0.15	+0.15
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	+0.10	+0.10