Round 2029
Round 3 of 20 in simulation 3 of South Korea, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index +0.002 to 16.14.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 16.14 (+0.002)
- In: 16.14
- Rank by index
- 6
- In: 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- In: 2
- Credits carried
- 280
- In: 180
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 16.08 | 15.92 | −0.161 | 2 → 3 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 16.32 | 16.25 | −0.071 | 2 |
| National Security | 14.49 | 14.58 | +0.087 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 17.37 | 17.83 | +0.458 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 15.49 | 15.64 | +0.141 | 3 → 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 15.84 | 15.74 | −0.105 | 4 |
| Financial Strength | 16.10 | 15.94 | −0.169 | 5 |
| Production & Innovation | 16.89 | 16.72 | −0.167 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 16.68 | 16.69 | +0.008 | 2 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2029: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 920, plus 180 carried in. Maintenance 592. Spent 229 on actions (build 92, partner 137). 280 carried over.
- PartnerTechnical & Vocational Skills46 credits for 1.39 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
- PartnerAlliances & Security Cooperation46 credits for 3.50 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildAdvanced Education46 credits for 1.73 levelsmcts_fill
- PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access46 credits for 2.92 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildFoundational Education46 credits for 1.80 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −27.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 2 to 3; Information & Influence Tier 3 to 2.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +1.81 | +1.90 | 0.00 | −0.09 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | +1.59 | +1.75 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | +1.28 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +1.13 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 |
| Space Operations | +0.87 | +0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.79 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 |