Simulation 3
South Korea, tree search, 20 years, seed 3: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 50. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.31 in 2046; 72 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 50 (median simulation), 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 18.31 (+2.31)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.08 +0.074 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.14 +0.066 | |
| 2029 |
| AI labour shock | 16.14 +0.002 |
| 2030 |
| 16.22 +0.077 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.23 +0.014 | |
| 2032 |
| Market access opening | 16.52 +0.286 |
| 2033 |
| 16.73 +0.213 | |
| 2034 |
| 16.93 +0.192 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.02 +0.091 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.12 +0.105 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.27 +0.153 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.45 +0.170 | |
| 2039 |
| 17.61 +0.164 | |
| 2040 |
| 17.73 +0.118 | |
| 2041 |
| 17.80 +0.074 | |
| 2042 |
| Clean power threshold | 17.93 +0.129 |
| 2043 |
| 18.05 +0.124 | |
| 2044 |
| 18.15 +0.100 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.25 +0.093 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.31 +0.068 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.327 | −160.1 | −5.20 |
| No shocks | +0.152 | +12.6 | +0.20 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | −0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.020 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.018 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.013 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.084 | +6.3 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.025 | +3.0 | +0.33 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.013 | +3.0 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 17.64 | +5.89 | +4.35 | −0.02 | +1.17 | +0.38 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.93 | +5.43 | +5.03 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.49 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.95 | +4.95 | +3.81 | −0.01 | +0.59 | +0.55 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.43 | +4.93 | +4.70 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.32 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +5.52 | −0.01 | +0.59 | +0.08 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +4.12 | −0.03 | +0.29 | +0.50 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.57 | +4.57 | +3.83 | −0.01 | +0.59 | +0.16 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +8.58 | −0.01 | +0.81 | +0.17 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.27 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.19 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +6.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.14 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.81 | +3.81 | +3.08 | −0.02 | +0.23 | +0.51 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.79 | +3.79 | +3.50 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.37 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.57 | −0.01 | +1.20 | +0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +4.21 | −0.03 | +0.55 | +0.34 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +4.11 | −0.02 | +0.61 | +0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.79 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.64 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +2.96 | −0.03 | +0.36 | +0.29 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 20.00 | +3.50 | +3.83 | −0.03 | +0.95 | +0.15 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 20.00 | +3.33 | +2.89 | −0.03 | +0.38 | +0.25 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 19.60 | +3.00 | +2.70 | −0.05 | +0.26 | +0.08 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.96 | −0.01 | +0.25 | +0.29 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.61 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.38 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +4.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +2.92 | −0.03 | +0.55 | +0.59 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 17.10 | +2.90 | +2.43 | −0.02 | +0.23 | +0.26 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.62 | +2.87 | +2.23 | −0.03 | +0.38 | +0.28 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 17.81 | +2.81 | +2.45 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.46 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 20.00 | +2.80 | +1.53 | −0.01 | +1.21 | +0.42 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +3.45 | −0.01 | +0.25 | +0.34 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 19.87 | +2.54 | +2.00 | −0.03 | +0.30 | +0.27 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 18.78 | +2.53 | +2.38 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.16 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 19.31 | +2.51 | +2.18 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.40 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 18.50 | +2.50 | +2.13 | −0.01 | +0.24 | +0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 20.00 | +2.50 | +2.10 | −0.03 | +0.56 | +0.24 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 18.23 | +2.48 | +2.02 | −0.02 | +0.24 | +0.24 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.75 | +2.42 | +1.61 | −0.02 | +0.61 | +0.21 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 18.42 | +2.42 | +1.91 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.15 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.01 | +2.34 | +2.55 | −0.03 | −0.51 | +0.33 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.24 | +2.24 | +1.46 | −0.03 | +0.30 | +0.51 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 20.00 | +2.00 | +1.83 | −0.03 | +0.96 | +0.47 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 15.52 | +1.85 | +1.74 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.47 | +1.67 | +1.19 | −0.04 | +0.26 | +0.26 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.72 | +1.59 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +1.44 | +0.17 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.43 | +1.43 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.39 | +1.06 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.38 | +1.38 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.62 | +0.78 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.85 | +1.35 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.87 | +0.50 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 17.94 | +1.27 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.25 | +0.30 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.65 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.62 | +0.65 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.88 | +1.21 | +0.78 | −0.04 | +0.25 | +0.22 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.74 | +1.14 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.83 | +0.35 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 18.01 | +1.01 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.82 | +0.21 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 15.22 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.24 | +0.76 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.74 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.62 | +0.34 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.57 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.59 | +0.31 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.07 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.60 | +0.28 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.85 | +0.85 | 0.00 | −0.03 | +0.62 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 17.49 | +0.78 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.26 | +0.56 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 17.24 | +0.74 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.26 | +0.52 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.40 | +0.65 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.61 | +0.05 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 16.77 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.26 | +0.35 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 18.04 | +0.54 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.27 | +0.32 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.85 | +0.52 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.24 | +0.29 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 17.13 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.01 | +0.25 | +0.23 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 15.94 | +0.44 | +0.47 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.05 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.66 | +0.33 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.36 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 17.01 | +0.26 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.29 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 16.21 | +0.21 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.24 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.94 | +0.11 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 15.44 | +0.11 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.14 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 16.09 | +0.09 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.12 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.58 | +0.08 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 16.07 | +0.07 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | +0.10 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.66 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
Seed 3 of experiment mcts-m2.m2-kor-mcts-tier-rank. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.