Round 6 · simulation 15 · mcts-m2b.m2b-est-mcts-index

Round 2032

Round 6 of 20 in simulation 15 of Estonia, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, and the index −0.036 to 11.53.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2032 (the end of 2031) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.53 (−0.036)
In: 11.56
Rank by index
32
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
310
In: 269
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.826.88+0.0626
Strategic Infrastructure10.7710.76−0.0045
National Security7.487.46−0.0136
Human Capital14.8814.96+0.0842
Information & Influence10.7110.73+0.0216
Governance & Integrity15.3215.25−0.0713 → 4
Financial Strength13.0812.98−0.1018 → 7
Production & Innovation12.8512.70−0.1525
Trade & Investment12.1812.03−0.1548

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2032: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 365, plus 269 carried in. Maintenance 270. Spent 55 on actions (buy 22, partner 33). 310 carried over.

  • PartnerFiscal Capacity & Public Finance11 credits for 0.34 levelsmctsahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 0 per cent
  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing11 credits for 0.89 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerTrade Policy & Market Access11 credits for 1.15 levelsmcts_fill
  • BuySpace, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure11 credits for 0.77 levelsmcts_fill
  • PartnerDiplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks11 credits for 0.89 levelsmcts_fill

Earlier events still landing: −7.9 points this round.

Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 4; Financial Strength Tier 8 to 7.

The groups that moved most in 2032, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.84+0.880.00−0.040.00
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks+0.72+0.950.00−0.28+0.05
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+0.67+0.890.00−0.230.00
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure+0.39+0.390.00−0.04+0.04
Space Technologies+0.38+0.460.00−0.080.00
Export Capability & Sophistication−0.340.000.00−0.31−0.03