Simulation 15
Estonia, tree search, 20 years, seed 15: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 20. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 12.77 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 15
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 7 (median simulation), 13 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.77 (+1.29)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 24
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the tree search (mcts) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.54 +0.049 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.59 +0.049 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.65 +0.062 | |
| 2030 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 11.63 −0.019 |
| 2031 |
| 11.56 −0.063 | |
| 2032 |
| 11.53 −0.036 | |
| 2033 |
| 11.62 +0.088 | |
| 2034 |
| Water-efficient food leap | 11.71 +0.097 |
| 2035 |
| 11.80 +0.091 | |
| 2036 |
| 11.90 +0.099 | |
| 2037 |
| 11.98 +0.080 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.09 +0.102 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.17 +0.087 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.26 +0.086 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.34 +0.081 | |
| 2042 |
| 12.43 +0.091 | |
| 2043 |
| 12.50 +0.066 | |
| 2044 |
| 12.59 +0.092 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.69 +0.096 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.77 +0.089 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 5 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.695 | −124.3 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +0.964 | +70.3 | +0.80 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.016 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.581 | +41.8 | +0.20 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.395 | +27.7 | +0.25 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.271 | +19.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 12.16 | +9.66 | +10.28 | 0.00 | −0.63 | +0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 10.57 | +7.90 | +7.95 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.15 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 15.36 | +7.03 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +3.94 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 13.41 | +5.91 | +5.79 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.50 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 10.48 | +5.88 | +4.75 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +1.30 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 10.41 | +5.61 | +5.77 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 18.50 | +5.50 | +5.57 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 10.54 | +5.40 | +5.80 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 14.62 | +4.62 | +4.97 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 17.61 | +4.11 | +4.57 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.42 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 17.16 | +3.66 | +3.65 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +0.38 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 9.24 | +3.57 | +3.25 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.39 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 13.45 | +3.45 | +3.77 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.49 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 13.85 | +3.05 | +3.41 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 17.76 | +3.01 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.37 | +1.13 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 10.25 | +2.85 | +3.40 | 0.00 | −0.54 | 0.00 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 14.15 | +2.82 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.14 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 10.46 | +2.21 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.35 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.86 | +2.19 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.08 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 16.46 | +2.13 | +2.21 | 0.00 | −0.09 | 0.00 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 10.37 | +1.97 | +2.30 | 0.00 | −0.33 | 0.00 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 16.35 | +1.85 | +2.04 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.10 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 7.73 | +1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +1.86 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 5.60 | +1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +1.69 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 10.56 | +0.76 | +1.03 | 0.00 | −0.39 | +0.12 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 13.40 | +0.73 | +0.73 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.10 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 12.40 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +1.63 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 10.62 | +0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.77 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.61 | +0.61 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 14.76 | +0.43 | +0.46 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.06 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 14.27 | +0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.50 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 11.99 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.53 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.27 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.35 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 14.02 | +0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.61 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 13.27 | +0.27 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.12 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 4.76 | +0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.37 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 8.82 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.34 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 12.13 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.23 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 13.45 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.32 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 13.73 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.15 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 8.94 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.13 | +0.19 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 6.05 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.19 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 6.79 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.13 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.04 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 11.84 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.14 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 17.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.49 | −0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 9.21 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.16 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 11.96 | −0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.17 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 14.81 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.09 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 11.45 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 14.14 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | +0.10 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 15.93 | −0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 16.41 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 12.37 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.21 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.17 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 15.84 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 14.51 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 15.08 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 5.32 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.31 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.03 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 13.02 | −0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.09 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 11.73 | −0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.12 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 14.02 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | 0.00 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 12.35 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | +0.03 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 11.63 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 13.63 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.05 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 11.12 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | 0.00 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 13.85 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.27 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.02 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 14.34 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.07 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 13.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.09 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.81 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.05 |
Seed 15 of experiment mcts-m2b.m2b-est-mcts-index. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.